Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月3日のパリの最高気温は？
7月3日のパリの最高気温は？
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$176,690 Vol.
$176,690 Vol.
2026/07/03
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$176,690 Vol.
$176,690 Vol.
2026/07/03
24°C or below
$12,919 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,868 Vol.
No
26°C
$10,262 Vol.
No
27°C
$31,422 Vol.
No
28°C
$30,376 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$31,933 Vol.
No
30°C
$18,689 Vol.
No
31°C
$19,341 Vol.
No
32°C
$7,248 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,824 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$5,807 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$176,690終了日
2026/07/03マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$176,690終了日
2026/07/03マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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