Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月4日のパリの最高気温は？
7月4日のパリの最高気温は？
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$127,419 Vol.
$127,419 Vol.
2026/07/04
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$127,419 Vol.
$127,419 Vol.
2026/07/04
25°C or below
$8,612 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,358 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,134 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,084 Vol.
No
29°C
$19,915 Vol.
No
30°C
$27,815 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$20,226 Vol.
No
32°C
$12,007 Vol.
No
33°C
$7,657 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,596 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$4,014 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
音量
$127,419終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$127,419終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問