Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 30°C as São Paulo's highest temperature on March 26, with 33% implied probability edging out 29°C at 25% and 31°C at 20.5%, driven by the latest INMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in the upper 20s to low 30s amid lingering El Niño warmth. Seasonal March norms hover at 27-28°C, but persistent high pressure and urban heat island amplification in the metropolis favor hotter outcomes, while scattered afternoon clouds could differentiate lower at 29°C versus clearer skies enabling 31°C. Historical data shows March 26 variability of ±2°C; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z GFS update for tipping model convergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月26日のサンパウロの最高気温は?
3月26日のサンパウロの最高気温は?
30°C 33%
29°C 22%
31°C 21%
28°C 10%
$77,676 Vol.
$77,676 Vol.
22℃以下
<1%
23℃
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27℃
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
22%
30°C
33%
31°C
21%
32℃以上
9%
30°C 33%
29°C 22%
31°C 21%
28°C 10%
$77,676 Vol.
$77,676 Vol.
22℃以下
<1%
23℃
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27℃
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
22%
30°C
33%
31°C
21%
32℃以上
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 30°C as São Paulo's highest temperature on March 26, with 33% implied probability edging out 29°C at 25% and 31°C at 20.5%, driven by the latest INMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in the upper 20s to low 30s amid lingering El Niño warmth. Seasonal March norms hover at 27-28°C, but persistent high pressure and urban heat island amplification in the metropolis favor hotter outcomes, while scattered afternoon clouds could differentiate lower at 29°C versus clearer skies enabling 31°C. Historical data shows March 26 variability of ±2°C; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z GFS update for tipping model convergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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