Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,832 Vol.
$51,832 Vol.
2026/05/03
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,832 Vol.
$51,832 Vol.
2026/05/03
23°C or below
$2,434 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,890 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,089 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,076 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,341 Vol.
No
28°C
$9,179 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$7,457 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,196 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,231 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,350 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$3,588 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
音量
$51,832終了日
2026/05/03マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$51,832終了日
2026/05/03マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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