Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Taipei on May 2?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 2?
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$145,833 Vol.
$145,833 Vol.
2026/05/02
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$145,833 Vol.
$145,833 Vol.
2026/05/02
24°C or below
$1,214 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,459 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,864 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,109 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,197 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,709 Vol.
No
30°C
$12,369 Vol.
No
31°C
$66,454 Vol.
No
32°C
$18,258 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$12,422 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$12,777 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
音量
$145,833終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$145,833終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問