Trader consensus has locked in 14°C at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed observational data from Warsaw Chopin Airport station—Poland's official meteorological reference site managed by IMGW—recording this as the highest temperature on April 21 amid cool northerly airflow, clear skies, and light winds. Morning readings near 5°C rose to a midday peak of 14°C before cooling, aligning precisely with pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW models projecting 13–15°C maxima under high-pressure influence and below-average spring conditions (historical April highs average 13°C). Realistic challenges would involve rare post-processing revisions, such as sensor recalibration uncovering an unreported higher spike, though initial IMGW synoptic reports rarely shift after 24 hours. Upcoming daily summaries from IMGW will finalize resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 21?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$63,192 Vol.
$63,192 Vol.
2026/04/21
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$63,192 Vol.
$63,192 Vol.
2026/04/21
8°C or below
$635 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,301 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,314 Vol.
No
11°C
$3,388 Vol.
No
12°C
$6,401 Vol.
No
13°C
$12,685 Vol.
No
14°C
$9,683 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$11,233 Vol.
No
16°C
$8,737 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,668 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$2,147 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 14°C at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed observational data from Warsaw Chopin Airport station—Poland's official meteorological reference site managed by IMGW—recording this as the highest temperature on April 21 amid cool northerly airflow, clear skies, and light winds. Morning readings near 5°C rose to a midday peak of 14°C before cooling, aligning precisely with pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW models projecting 13–15°C maxima under high-pressure influence and below-average spring conditions (historical April highs average 13°C). Realistic challenges would involve rare post-processing revisions, such as sensor recalibration uncovering an unreported higher spike, though initial IMGW synoptic reports rarely shift after 24 hours. Upcoming daily summaries from IMGW will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 19, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$63,192終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 19, 2026, 12:18 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 14°C at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed observational data from Warsaw Chopin Airport station—Poland's official meteorological reference site managed by IMGW—recording this as the highest temperature on April 21 amid cool northerly airflow, clear skies, and light winds. Morning readings near 5°C rose to a midday peak of 14°C before cooling, aligning precisely with pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW models projecting 13–15°C maxima under high-pressure influence and below-average spring conditions (historical April highs average 13°C). Realistic challenges would involve rare post-processing revisions, such as sensor recalibration uncovering an unreported higher spike, though initial IMGW synoptic reports rarely shift after 24 hours. Upcoming daily summaries from IMGW will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$63,192終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 19, 2026, 12:18 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus has locked in 14°C at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed observational data from Warsaw Chopin Airport station—Poland's official meteorological reference site managed by IMGW—recording this as the highest temperature on April 21 amid cool northerly airflow, clear skies, and light winds. Morning readings near 5°C rose to a midday peak of 14°C before cooling, aligning precisely with pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW models projecting 13–15°C maxima under high-pressure influence and below-average spring conditions (historical April highs average 13°C). Realistic challenges would involve rare post-processing revisions, such as sensor recalibration uncovering an unreported higher spike, though initial IMGW synoptic reports rarely shift after 24 hours. Upcoming daily summaries from IMGW will finalize resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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