Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker’s strong position in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race stems from his uncontested primary win, proven statewide appeal after decisive 2022 victories, and Illinois’s consistent Democratic lean in gubernatorial contests. Recent polling shows him ahead of Republican nominee Darren Bailey by double-digit margins, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Traders price the Democrat outcome at 95.5 percent because no major shifts in voter coalitions, economic conditions, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to narrow that gap. A realistic challenge would require late-cycle events such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp state-specific economic downturn, or an independent candidate drawing enough votes to alter the two-party balance before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$4,570 Vol.
96%
共和党
$3,088 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker’s strong position in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race stems from his uncontested primary win, proven statewide appeal after decisive 2022 victories, and Illinois’s consistent Democratic lean in gubernatorial contests. Recent polling shows him ahead of Republican nominee Darren Bailey by double-digit margins, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Traders price the Democrat outcome at 95.5 percent because no major shifts in voter coalitions, economic conditions, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to narrow that gap. A realistic challenge would require late-cycle events such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp state-specific economic downturn, or an independent candidate drawing enough votes to alter the two-party balance before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
音量
$7,658終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker’s strong position in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race stems from his uncontested primary win, proven statewide appeal after decisive 2022 victories, and Illinois’s consistent Democratic lean in gubernatorial contests. Recent polling shows him ahead of Republican nominee Darren Bailey by double-digit margins, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Traders price the Democrat outcome at 95.5 percent because no major shifts in voter coalitions, economic conditions, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to narrow that gap. A realistic challenge would require late-cycle events such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp state-specific economic downturn, or an independent candidate drawing enough votes to alter the two-party balance before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$7,658終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker’s strong position in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race stems from his uncontested primary win, proven statewide appeal after decisive 2022 victories, and Illinois’s consistent Democratic lean in gubernatorial contests. Recent polling shows him ahead of Republican nominee Darren Bailey by double-digit margins, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Traders price the Democrat outcome at 95.5 percent because no major shifts in voter coalitions, economic conditions, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to narrow that gap. A realistic challenge would require late-cycle events such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp state-specific economic downturn, or an independent candidate drawing enough votes to alter the two-party balance before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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