The rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an El Niño Watch and models assigning over 80% probability of emergence by July 2026, serves as the main near-term driver elevating June global temperature anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already pushed the baseline near 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, and the developing event is expected to add further positive forcing through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though the precise June imprint remains sensitive to event strength and timing. Recent multi-model ensembles indicate continued above-normal land and ocean temperatures through mid-year, yet substantial uncertainty persists in peak Niño 3.4 values and short-term variability, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the 1.10–1.29 °C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 38%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
1.25–1.29ºC 37%
<1.10ºC 13%
新規
新規
2026/06/30
<1.10ºC
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
38%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
37%
>1.29ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC 38%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
1.25–1.29ºC 37%
<1.10ºC 13%
新規
新規
2026/06/30
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
>1.29ºC
$352 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an El Niño Watch and models assigning over 80% probability of emergence by July 2026, serves as the main near-term driver elevating June global temperature anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already pushed the baseline near 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, and the developing event is expected to add further positive forcing through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though the precise June imprint remains sensitive to event strength and timing. Recent multi-model ensembles indicate continued above-normal land and ocean temperatures through mid-year, yet substantial uncertainty persists in peak Niño 3.4 values and short-term variability, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the 1.10–1.29 °C range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$528終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an El Niño Watch and models assigning over 80% probability of emergence by July 2026, serves as the main near-term driver elevating June global temperature anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already pushed the baseline near 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, and the developing event is expected to add further positive forcing through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though the precise June imprint remains sensitive to event strength and timing. Recent multi-model ensembles indicate continued above-normal land and ocean temperatures through mid-year, yet substantial uncertainty persists in peak Niño 3.4 values and short-term variability, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the 1.10–1.29 °C range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$528終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an El Niño Watch and models assigning over 80% probability of emergence by July 2026, serves as the main near-term driver elevating June global temperature anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already pushed the baseline near 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, and the developing event is expected to add further positive forcing through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though the precise June imprint remains sensitive to event strength and timing. Recent multi-model ensembles indicate continued above-normal land and ocean temperatures through mid-year, yet substantial uncertainty persists in peak Niño 3.4 values and short-term variability, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the 1.10–1.29 °C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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