Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in NYC on May 2?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 2?
50-51°F 100.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$30,869 Vol.
$30,869 Vol.
2026/05/02
39°F or below
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
Yes
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F or higher
No
50-51°F 100.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$30,869 Vol.
$30,869 Vol.
2026/05/02
39°F or below
$6,903 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$1,170 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$1,759 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$1,062 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$1,370 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$4,626 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$5,161 Vol.
Yes
52-53°F
$3,784 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$846 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,096 Vol.
No
58°F or higher
$3,093 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$30,869終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$30,869終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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