Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月4日の上海の最低気温は？
5月4日の上海の最低気温は？
14℃ 100.0%
8℃以下 <1%
9℃ <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Vol.
$12,197 Vol.
2026/05/04
8℃以下
いいえ
9℃
いいえ
10°C
いいえ
11℃
いいえ
12℃
いいえ
13℃
いいえ
14℃
はい
15℃
いいえ
16℃
いいえ
17°C
いいえ
18°C以上
いいえ
14℃ 100.0%
8℃以下 <1%
9℃ <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Vol.
$12,197 Vol.
2026/05/04
8℃以下
$553 Vol.
いいえ
9℃
$522 Vol.
いいえ
10°C
$816 Vol.
いいえ
11℃
$771 Vol.
いいえ
12℃
$824 Vol.
いいえ
13℃
$2,700 Vol.
いいえ
14℃
$3,829 Vol.
はい
15℃
$628 Vol.
いいえ
16℃
$634 Vol.
いいえ
17°C
$500 Vol.
いいえ
18°C以上
$419 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$12,197終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$12,197終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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