The Michael Jackson biopic's record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend, driven by fervent fan turnout despite middling critical reception, has fueled trader consensus for a robust second-weekend hold above $55 million at 71.4% implied probability. Friday estimates of $14.4 million from 3,955 theaters—capping a first-week domestic cume of $144.2 million—signal solid word-of-mouth momentum, outpacing some trackers' $51 million projections amid competition from Devil Wears Prada 2's debut. Audience enthusiasm and global strength past $400 million worldwide underscore the hold potential, though final Saturday-Sunday tallies and theater expansion could sway the 50-55 million bracket at 29%. Prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game optimism for biopic legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日「マイケル」第2週末興行収入
「マイケル」第2週末興行収入
>5,500万 70.6%
5000万〜5500万 28%
4500万〜5000万 1.0%
3,500万～4,000万 <1%
$79,150 Vol.
$79,150 Vol.
2026/05/04
3,500万未満
<1%
3,500万～4,000万
<1%
4000万〜4500万
<1%
4500万〜5000万
1%
5000万〜5500万
28%
>5,500万
71%
>5,500万 70.6%
5000万〜5500万 28%
4500万〜5000万 1.0%
3,500万～4,000万 <1%
$79,150 Vol.
$79,150 Vol.
2026/05/04
3,500万未満
$6,645 Vol.
<1%
3,500万～4,000万
$20,758 Vol.
<1%
4000万〜4500万
$6,709 Vol.
<1%
4500万〜5000万
$10,428 Vol.
1%
5000万〜5500万
$16,127 Vol.
28%
>5,500万
$18,484 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Michael Jackson biopic's record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend, driven by fervent fan turnout despite middling critical reception, has fueled trader consensus for a robust second-weekend hold above $55 million at 71.4% implied probability. Friday estimates of $14.4 million from 3,955 theaters—capping a first-week domestic cume of $144.2 million—signal solid word-of-mouth momentum, outpacing some trackers' $51 million projections amid competition from Devil Wears Prada 2's debut. Audience enthusiasm and global strength past $400 million worldwide underscore the hold potential, though final Saturday-Sunday tallies and theater expansion could sway the 50-55 million bracket at 29%. Prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game optimism for biopic legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET
音量
$79,150終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Michael Jackson biopic's record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend, driven by fervent fan turnout despite middling critical reception, has fueled trader consensus for a robust second-weekend hold above $55 million at 71.4% implied probability. Friday estimates of $14.4 million from 3,955 theaters—capping a first-week domestic cume of $144.2 million—signal solid word-of-mouth momentum, outpacing some trackers' $51 million projections amid competition from Devil Wears Prada 2's debut. Audience enthusiasm and global strength past $400 million worldwide underscore the hold potential, though final Saturday-Sunday tallies and theater expansion could sway the 50-55 million bracket at 29%. Prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game optimism for biopic legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$79,150終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Michael Jackson biopic's record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend, driven by fervent fan turnout despite middling critical reception, has fueled trader consensus for a robust second-weekend hold above $55 million at 71.4% implied probability. Friday estimates of $14.4 million from 3,955 theaters—capping a first-week domestic cume of $144.2 million—signal solid word-of-mouth momentum, outpacing some trackers' $51 million projections amid competition from Devil Wears Prada 2's debut. Audience enthusiasm and global strength past $400 million worldwide underscore the hold potential, though final Saturday-Sunday tallies and theater expansion could sway the 50-55 million bracket at 29%. Prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game optimism for biopic legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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