Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk maintaining his hyperactive X posting rhythm into May 2026, with the highest implied probability (19.3%) for 1600-1679 tweets, closely trailed by 1320-1359 and 1480-1519 at 17.9% each, implying a daily clip of 42-54 posts over 31 days. This clustering reflects his recent averages—often exceeding 1300 monthly amid Tesla launches, xAI updates, and political sparring—showing no signs of abatement under his X ownership, where algorithm tweaks reward volume. Differentiators include potential election-year spikes boosting upper ranges, versus quieter periods favoring mid-bins, but low odds on extremes (<1200 or >2000) underscore bettors' faith in steady, voluminous output absent major disruptions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1320〜1359 17.9%
1480~1519 17.9%
1400〜1439 16.0%
1360〜1399 15.5%
$45,899 Vol.
$45,899 Vol.
20未満
1%
20~39
<1%
40~59
1%
60~79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100〜119
1%
120~139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160~179
1%
180~199
1%
200〜219
<1%
220~239
<1%
240~259
<1%
260~279
<1%
280~299
<1%
300〜319
1%
320〜339
<1%
340~359
<1%
360〜379
<1%
380~399
<1%
400〜419
<1%
420~439
<1%
440~459
<1%
460〜479
<1%
480~499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540〜559
<1%
560~579
<1%
580~599
<1%
600〜619
<1%
620〜639
<1%
640〜659
<1%
660〜679
1%
680~699
1%
700〜719
1%
720〜739
1%
740〜759
1%
760〜779
1%
780〜799
1%
800〜839
2%
840~879
2%
880~919
2%
920〜959
2%
960~999
2%
1000〜1039
2%
1040〜1079
8%
1080~1119
2%
1120〜1159
2%
1160~1199
3%
1200~1239
13%
1240~1279
14%
1280〜1319
15%
1320〜1359
18%
1360〜1399
16%
1400〜1439
16%
1440~1479
14%
1480~1519
18%
1520〜1559
9%
1560〜1599
9%
1600〜1679
19%
1680〜1759
18%
1760〜1839
1%
1840〜1919
1%
1920~1999
1%
2000件以上
2%
1320〜1359 17.9%
1480~1519 17.9%
1400〜1439 16.0%
1360〜1399 15.5%
$45,899 Vol.
$45,899 Vol.
20未満
1%
20~39
<1%
40~59
1%
60~79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100〜119
1%
120~139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160~179
1%
180~199
1%
200〜219
<1%
220~239
<1%
240~259
<1%
260~279
<1%
280~299
<1%
300〜319
1%
320〜339
<1%
340~359
<1%
360〜379
<1%
380~399
<1%
400〜419
<1%
420~439
<1%
440~459
<1%
460〜479
<1%
480~499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540〜559
<1%
560~579
<1%
580~599
<1%
600〜619
<1%
620〜639
<1%
640〜659
<1%
660〜679
1%
680~699
1%
700〜719
1%
720〜739
1%
740〜759
1%
760〜779
1%
780〜799
1%
800〜839
2%
840~879
2%
880~919
2%
920〜959
2%
960~999
2%
1000〜1039
2%
1040〜1079
8%
1080~1119
2%
1120〜1159
2%
1160~1199
3%
1200~1239
13%
1240~1279
14%
1280〜1319
15%
1320〜1359
18%
1360〜1399
16%
1400〜1439
16%
1440~1479
14%
1480~1519
18%
1520〜1559
9%
1560〜1599
9%
1600〜1679
19%
1680〜1759
18%
1760〜1839
1%
1840〜1919
1%
1920~1999
1%
2000件以上
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk maintaining his hyperactive X posting rhythm into May 2026, with the highest implied probability (19.3%) for 1600-1679 tweets, closely trailed by 1320-1359 and 1480-1519 at 17.9% each, implying a daily clip of 42-54 posts over 31 days. This clustering reflects his recent averages—often exceeding 1300 monthly amid Tesla launches, xAI updates, and political sparring—showing no signs of abatement under his X ownership, where algorithm tweaks reward volume. Differentiators include potential election-year spikes boosting upper ranges, versus quieter periods favoring mid-bins, but low odds on extremes (<1200 or >2000) underscore bettors' faith in steady, voluminous output absent major disruptions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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