Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term policy shift expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid war-related oil shocks, while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and the Fed held the 3.5%-3.75% target steady last month. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists but consensus for a pause, with cuts eyed later in 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like jobless claims, though resolution looms in 48 hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 99.6%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$162,580,042 Vol.
$162,580,042 Vol.
2026/04/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
<1%
変更なし
100%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 99.6%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$162,580,042 Vol.
$162,580,042 Vol.
2026/04/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$55,677,607 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$33,284,336 Vol.
<1%
変更なし
$35,195,183 Vol.
100%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$38,429,389 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term policy shift expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid war-related oil shocks, while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and the Fed held the 3.5%-3.75% target steady last month. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists but consensus for a pause, with cuts eyed later in 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like jobless claims, though resolution looms in 48 hours.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
音量
$162,580,042終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term policy shift expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid war-related oil shocks, while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and the Fed held the 3.5%-3.75% target steady last month. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists but consensus for a pause, with cuts eyed later in 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like jobless claims, though resolution looms in 48 hours.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$162,580,042終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term policy shift expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid war-related oil shocks, while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and the Fed held the 3.5%-3.75% target steady last month. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists but consensus for a pause, with cuts eyed later in 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like jobless claims, though resolution looms in 48 hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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