Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, alongside May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, have reinforced trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect the Fed's data-dependent stance prioritizing upside inflation risks over near-term easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning. While the 93.5% probability of no change signals strong alignment with current conditions, a material downside surprise in inflation or labor data could open scope for a 25 basis point adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 4.3%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$8,248,940 Vol.
$8,248,940 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
2%
変更なし
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 4.3%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$8,248,940 Vol.
$8,248,940 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$1,062,220 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$851,863 Vol.
2%
変更なし
$1,096,179 Vol.
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,873,260 Vol.
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$1,365,418 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, alongside May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, have reinforced trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect the Fed's data-dependent stance prioritizing upside inflation risks over near-term easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning. While the 93.5% probability of no change signals strong alignment with current conditions, a material downside surprise in inflation or labor data could open scope for a 25 basis point adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$8,248,940終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, alongside May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, have reinforced trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect the Fed's data-dependent stance prioritizing upside inflation risks over near-term easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning. While the 93.5% probability of no change signals strong alignment with current conditions, a material downside surprise in inflation or labor data could open scope for a 25 basis point adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$8,248,940終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, alongside May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, have reinforced trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect the Fed's data-dependent stance prioritizing upside inflation risks over near-term easing. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning. While the 93.5% probability of no change signals strong alignment with current conditions, a material downside surprise in inflation or labor data could open scope for a 25 basis point adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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