**Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability to "No" on Narendra Modi leaving office by December 31, 2026, reflecting his entrenched position as prime minister with no scheduled elections, term expiration, or constitutional triggers before the deadline.** India’s next general election is not due until 2029, and Modi’s BJP-led NDA coalition maintains a parliamentary majority following the 2024 results. As of mid-September 2026, Modi remains fully engaged in governance, hosting the BRICS Summit in New Delhi and conducting bilateral meetings with leaders including China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. These activities underscore continuity rather than transition. Earlier 2026 domestic pressures, including student-led protests over exam integrity that prompted the education minister’s resignation, did not escalate into broader challenges to Modi’s leadership. Opinion surveys continue to show him as the leading preference for prime minister, and the BJP has launched outreach campaigns tied to his public service record ahead of his September birthday. With only a few months remaining and no credible signals of resignation, coalition fracture, or health-related withdrawal, market pricing aligns with the absence of near-term removal mechanisms.