Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.7% implied probability, reflecting recent daily volumes consistently below 2.8 million even during spring break peaks—March 22's high of 2.87 million followed by sub-2.6 million weekdays like March 30's 2.53 million. A partial government shutdown has triggered 40-50% TSA officer callouts, historic four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines near 9%, suppressing demand despite projections for 171 million spring flyers. Upsets into 3M+ bins would demand sudden shutdown resolution, staffing recovery, and unexpected booking surges, but with data steady and April 3 a midweek Thursday, such shifts remain low-likelihood outliers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
<3.0M 97.6%
3.0M-3.2M 1.5%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
>3.8M <1%
新規
新規
2026/04/03
<3.0M
98%
3.0M-3.2M
2%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 97.6%
3.0M-3.2M 1.5%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
>3.8M <1%
新規
新規
2026/04/03
<3.0M
$132 Vol.
98%
3.0M-3.2M
$26 Vol.
2%
3.2M-3.4M
$424 Vol.
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
$344 Vol.
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
$373 Vol.
<1%
>3.8M
$567 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.7% implied probability, reflecting recent daily volumes consistently below 2.8 million even during spring break peaks—March 22's high of 2.87 million followed by sub-2.6 million weekdays like March 30's 2.53 million. A partial government shutdown has triggered 40-50% TSA officer callouts, historic four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines near 9%, suppressing demand despite projections for 171 million spring flyers. Upsets into 3M+ bins would demand sudden shutdown resolution, staffing recovery, and unexpected booking surges, but with data steady and April 3 a midweek Thursday, such shifts remain low-likelihood outliers.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
音量
$1,867終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.7% implied probability, reflecting recent daily volumes consistently below 2.8 million even during spring break peaks—March 22's high of 2.87 million followed by sub-2.6 million weekdays like March 30's 2.53 million. A partial government shutdown has triggered 40-50% TSA officer callouts, historic four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines near 9%, suppressing demand despite projections for 171 million spring flyers. Upsets into 3M+ bins would demand sudden shutdown resolution, staffing recovery, and unexpected booking surges, but with data steady and April 3 a midweek Thursday, such shifts remain low-likelihood outliers.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
音量
$1,867終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETTrader consensus heavily favors fewer than 3 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.7% implied probability, reflecting recent daily volumes consistently below 2.8 million even during spring break peaks—March 22's high of 2.87 million followed by sub-2.6 million weekdays like March 30's 2.53 million. A partial government shutdown has triggered 40-50% TSA officer callouts, historic four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines near 9%, suppressing demand despite projections for 171 million spring flyers. Upsets into 3M+ bins would demand sudden shutdown resolution, staffing recovery, and unexpected booking surges, but with data steady and April 3 a midweek Thursday, such shifts remain low-likelihood outliers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問