Traders remain sharply divided on US flight delays for March 29, with under 6,000 leading at 45.5% implied probability versus over 9,000 at 40%, highlighting uncertainty amid spring break peak demand and volatile weather. Over the past week, daily delays averaged around 7,500, spiked by thunderstorms across Southeast hubs like Atlanta and Dallas, while FAA air traffic controller shortages have exacerbated cascading effects at major airports including Chicago O'Hare and Los Angeles. Forecasts for March 29 indicate partly cloudy conditions in the Northeast but lingering storm risks in the South, keeping the race tight; confirmation of severe weather, ground stops, or crew shortages could propel the over 9,000 outcome, while clear skies and efficient operations favor the under.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6,000未満 46%
>9,000 40%
6,000〜6,500 33%
6,500-7,000 33%
6,000未満
46%
6,000〜6,500
33%
6,500-7,000
33%
7,000〜7,500
28%
7,500〜8,000
28%
8,000~8,500
33%
8,500~9,000
28%
>9,000
40%
6,000未満 46%
>9,000 40%
6,000〜6,500 33%
6,500-7,000 33%
6,000未満
46%
6,000〜6,500
33%
6,500-7,000
33%
7,000〜7,500
28%
7,500〜8,000
28%
8,000~8,500
33%
8,500~9,000
28%
>9,000
40%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
マーケット開始日: Mar 27, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders remain sharply divided on US flight delays for March 29, with under 6,000 leading at 45.5% implied probability versus over 9,000 at 40%, highlighting uncertainty amid spring break peak demand and volatile weather. Over the past week, daily delays averaged around 7,500, spiked by thunderstorms across Southeast hubs like Atlanta and Dallas, while FAA air traffic controller shortages have exacerbated cascading effects at major airports including Chicago O'Hare and Los Angeles. Forecasts for March 29 indicate partly cloudy conditions in the Northeast but lingering storm risks in the South, keeping the race tight; confirmation of severe weather, ground stops, or crew shortages could propel the over 9,000 outcome, while clear skies and efficient operations favor the under.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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