Market icon
政治·空港

Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Market icon
政治·空港

Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

2% chance
Polymarket

$775 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$775 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors No at 98.9% implied probability as real-time FlightAware data confirms just 261 to 471 US flight cancellations on March 27—well below the 450 threshold—despite headwinds like day 42 of the federal government shutdown straining TSA staffing, LaGuardia runway closure from an earlier incident, high winds grounding flights at New York and Philadelphia hubs, and scattered thunderstorms in Chicago and Denver. Airlines prioritized 3,000-plus delays over cancellations to avoid mandatory compensation, muting disruptions amid Easter travel buildup. This marks a stark contrast to mid-March storms that triggered thousands of cancellations. Realistic upset scenarios include a pre-noon ET FlightAware revision incorporating late-reported cancellations, though historical patterns suggest minimal adjustment risk.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors No at 98.9% implied probability as real-time FlightAware data confirms just 261 to 471 US flight cancellations on March 27—well below the 450 threshold—despite headwinds like day 42 of the federal government shutdown straining TSA staffing, LaGuardia runway closure from an earlier incident, high winds grounding flights at New York and Philadelphia hubs, and scattered thunderstorms in Chicago and Denver. Airlines prioritized 3,000-plus delays over cancellations to avoid mandatory compensation, muting disruptions amid Easter travel buildup. This marks a stark contrast to mid-March storms that triggered thousands of cancellations. Realistic upset scenarios include a pre-noon ET FlightAware revision incorporating late-reported cancellations, though historical patterns suggest minimal adjustment risk.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors No at 98.9% implied probability as real-time FlightAware data confirms just 261 to 471 US flight cancellations on March 27—well below the 450 threshold—despite headwinds like day 42 of the federal government shutdown straining TSA staffing, LaGuardia runway closure from an earlier incident, high winds grounding flights at New York and Philadelphia hubs, and scattered thunderstorms in Chicago and Denver. Airlines prioritized 3,000-plus delays over cancellations to avoid mandatory compensation, muting disruptions amid Easter travel buildup. This marks a stark contrast to mid-March storms that triggered thousands of cancellations. Realistic upset scenarios include a pre-noon ET FlightAware revision incorporating late-reported cancellations, though historical patterns suggest minimal adjustment risk.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors No at 98.9% implied probability as real-time FlightAware data confirms just 261 to 471 US flight cancellations on March 27—well below the 450 threshold—despite headwinds like day 42 of the federal government shutdown straining TSA staffing, LaGuardia runway closure from an earlier incident, high winds grounding flights at New York and Philadelphia hubs, and scattered thunderstorms in Chicago and Denver. Airlines prioritized 3,000-plus delays over cancellations to avoid mandatory compensation, muting disruptions amid Easter travel buildup. This marks a stark contrast to mid-March storms that triggered thousands of cancellations. Realistic upset scenarios include a pre-noon ET FlightAware revision incorporating late-reported cancellations, though historical patterns suggest minimal adjustment risk.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して2%です。例えば、「はい」が2¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を2%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 26, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して2%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を2%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

「Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。