Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus anchored in Saudi Arabia's dominant control over oil output quotas and the cartel's recent April 5 reaffirmation of modest production hikes—206,000 barrels per day for May—amid Iran war disruptions. The UAE's shock exit announcement on April 28 (effective May 1) erodes unity and exposes quota frictions but stops short of unraveling the group, as Riyadh prioritizes market stabilization with core OPEC+ partners like Russia and Iraq. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full collapse despite volatility in Brent crude and Treasury yields. Potential catalysts to shift odds include further member departures or widespread non-compliance, with next OPEC+ reviews looming as key tests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus anchored in Saudi Arabia's dominant control over oil output quotas and the cartel's recent April 5 reaffirmation of modest production hikes—206,000 barrels per day for May—amid Iran war disruptions. The UAE's shock exit announcement on April 28 (effective May 1) erodes unity and exposes quota frictions but stops short of unraveling the group, as Riyadh prioritizes market stabilization with core OPEC+ partners like Russia and Iraq. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full collapse despite volatility in Brent crude and Treasury yields. Potential catalysts to shift odds include further member departures or widespread non-compliance, with next OPEC+ reviews looming as key tests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$2,400終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus anchored in Saudi Arabia's dominant control over oil output quotas and the cartel's recent April 5 reaffirmation of modest production hikes—206,000 barrels per day for May—amid Iran war disruptions. The UAE's shock exit announcement on April 28 (effective May 1) erodes unity and exposes quota frictions but stops short of unraveling the group, as Riyadh prioritizes market stabilization with core OPEC+ partners like Russia and Iraq. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full collapse despite volatility in Brent crude and Treasury yields. Potential catalysts to shift odds include further member departures or widespread non-compliance, with next OPEC+ reviews looming as key tests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,400終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus anchored in Saudi Arabia's dominant control over oil output quotas and the cartel's recent April 5 reaffirmation of modest production hikes—206,000 barrels per day for May—amid Iran war disruptions. The UAE's shock exit announcement on April 28 (effective May 1) erodes unity and exposes quota frictions but stops short of unraveling the group, as Riyadh prioritizes market stabilization with core OPEC+ partners like Russia and Iraq. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full collapse despite volatility in Brent crude and Treasury yields. Potential catalysts to shift odds include further member departures or widespread non-compliance, with next OPEC+ reviews looming as key tests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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