Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds trader consensus at 60% implied probability for the October 26 Ottawa municipal election, buoyed by his June 2025 re-election announcement, centrist governance record, and historical incumbency advantages in Canadian municipal races where challengers rarely prevail without unified opposition. Councillor Jeff Leiper, at 22.5%, leads challengers as a progressive critic of declining city services like garbage collection, sidewalk maintenance, and transit reliability, while home builder Alex Lawson trails at 3.1% emphasizing housing and public safety. Catherine McKenney's 5.2% reflects her strong 2022 showing but lack of declaration, with advisor Neil Saravanamuttoo (0.3%) exploring a bid. January surveys highlight housing affordability and cost of living as top issues; no candidate polls exist yet, with nominations opening May 1 potentially reshaping the field amid Lansdowne redevelopment controversies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日マーク・サトクリフ 60%
ジェフ・ライパー 22%
アレックス・ローソン 3.1%
キャサリン・マッケニー 1.6%
マーク・サトクリフ
60%
ジェフ・ライパー
22%
アレックス・ローソン
3%
キャサリン・マッケニー
2%
ニール・サラバナムットゥ
<1%
マーク・サトクリフ 60%
ジェフ・ライパー 22%
アレックス・ローソン 3.1%
キャサリン・マッケニー 1.6%
マーク・サトクリフ
60%
ジェフ・ライパー
22%
アレックス・ローソン
3%
キャサリン・マッケニー
2%
ニール・サラバナムットゥ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds trader consensus at 60% implied probability for the October 26 Ottawa municipal election, buoyed by his June 2025 re-election announcement, centrist governance record, and historical incumbency advantages in Canadian municipal races where challengers rarely prevail without unified opposition. Councillor Jeff Leiper, at 22.5%, leads challengers as a progressive critic of declining city services like garbage collection, sidewalk maintenance, and transit reliability, while home builder Alex Lawson trails at 3.1% emphasizing housing and public safety. Catherine McKenney's 5.2% reflects her strong 2022 showing but lack of declaration, with advisor Neil Saravanamuttoo (0.3%) exploring a bid. January surveys highlight housing affordability and cost of living as top issues; no candidate polls exist yet, with nominations opening May 1 potentially reshaping the field amid Lansdowne redevelopment controversies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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