Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in the Pennsylvania 1st district race, reflecting his established moderate profile in a suburban Bucks County seat that has favored Republicans by narrow margins in recent cycles. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured the nomination after the May 2026 primary, benefits from unified party support and an endorsement from Governor Josh Shapiro, yet faces challenges closing the gap against Fitzpatrick’s cross-aisle appeal and fundraising advantage. Recent polling averages show the contest within single digits, with trader consensus pricing in the district’s structural lean and the absence of major national tailwinds that could shift suburban turnout. Key upcoming developments, including fall campaign spending and any late polling shifts, could widen or narrow the implied probability ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
53%
民主党
45%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$1,715 Vol.
53%
民主党
$1,418 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in the Pennsylvania 1st district race, reflecting his established moderate profile in a suburban Bucks County seat that has favored Republicans by narrow margins in recent cycles. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured the nomination after the May 2026 primary, benefits from unified party support and an endorsement from Governor Josh Shapiro, yet faces challenges closing the gap against Fitzpatrick’s cross-aisle appeal and fundraising advantage. Recent polling averages show the contest within single digits, with trader consensus pricing in the district’s structural lean and the absence of major national tailwinds that could shift suburban turnout. Key upcoming developments, including fall campaign spending and any late polling shifts, could widen or narrow the implied probability ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
音量
$3,132終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in the Pennsylvania 1st district race, reflecting his established moderate profile in a suburban Bucks County seat that has favored Republicans by narrow margins in recent cycles. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured the nomination after the May 2026 primary, benefits from unified party support and an endorsement from Governor Josh Shapiro, yet faces challenges closing the gap against Fitzpatrick’s cross-aisle appeal and fundraising advantage. Recent polling averages show the contest within single digits, with trader consensus pricing in the district’s structural lean and the absence of major national tailwinds that could shift suburban turnout. Key upcoming developments, including fall campaign spending and any late polling shifts, could widen or narrow the implied probability ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,132終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in the Pennsylvania 1st district race, reflecting his established moderate profile in a suburban Bucks County seat that has favored Republicans by narrow margins in recent cycles. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured the nomination after the May 2026 primary, benefits from unified party support and an endorsement from Governor Josh Shapiro, yet faces challenges closing the gap against Fitzpatrick’s cross-aisle appeal and fundraising advantage. Recent polling averages show the contest within single digits, with trader consensus pricing in the district’s structural lean and the absence of major national tailwinds that could shift suburban turnout. Key upcoming developments, including fall campaign spending and any late polling shifts, could widen or narrow the implied probability ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問