Russia’s September 2026 State Duma elections require parties to surpass the 5% national threshold for proportional representation seats. Yabloko, registered by the Central Election Commission in late July after submitting its federal list and single-mandate candidates, has polled consistently between 1.4% and 2.8% in recent surveys. The party’s 2021 result of roughly 1.3% established a low base rate, while documented administrative barriers—including disqualifications of dozens of its candidates—have further constrained its organizational reach and visibility. No polling trend or regional breakthrough has emerged to suggest an imminent surge capable of closing the gap before voting begins. These structural and performance factors underpin trader consensus that the threshold will not be cleared.