Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has kept the frontier tightly contested, with Chinese labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance narrowing capability gaps through efficient large-scale releases and lower-cost models. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, as SpaceXAI, ByteDance, and Moonshot command the highest implied odds among named options while established players like Google, Meta, and Mistral sit lower amid slower recent updates and distribution advantages for OpenAI. Key swing factors include upcoming model iterations, compute scaling, and any regulatory moves on safety standards before November resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 23%
Baidu 22%
Xiaomi 21%
ムーンショット 20%

OpenAI
23%

Baidu
22%

Xiaomi
21%

ムーンショット
20%

Meituan
20%

Anthropic
19%

SpaceXAI
17%

テンセント
17%

MiniMax
17%

Z.ai
16%

16%

Mistral
16%

ByteDance
15%

DeepSeek
14%

アマゾン
13%

Nvidia
13%

Microsoft
12%

Meta
11%

アリババ
9%

StepFun
8%

Thinky
6%
OpenAI 23%
Baidu 22%
Xiaomi 21%
ムーンショット 20%

OpenAI
23%

Baidu
22%

Xiaomi
21%

ムーンショット
20%

Meituan
20%

Anthropic
19%

SpaceXAI
17%

テンセント
17%

MiniMax
17%

Z.ai
16%

16%

Mistral
16%

ByteDance
15%

DeepSeek
14%

アマゾン
13%

Nvidia
13%

Microsoft
12%

Meta
11%

アリババ
9%

StepFun
8%

Thinky
6%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has kept the frontier tightly contested, with Chinese labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance narrowing capability gaps through efficient large-scale releases and lower-cost models. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, as SpaceXAI, ByteDance, and Moonshot command the highest implied odds among named options while established players like Google, Meta, and Mistral sit lower amid slower recent updates and distribution advantages for OpenAI. Key swing factors include upcoming model iterations, compute scaling, and any regulatory moves on safety standards before November resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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