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icon for 次のクロード・オーパスは… ?

次のクロード・オーパスは… ?

icon for 次のクロード・オーパスは… ?

次のクロード・オーパスは… ?

9月30日までにリリースなし 26%

9月25日 16%

9月24日 15%

9月30日 14%

Polymarket
新規

9月30日までにリリースなし 26%

9月25日 16%

9月24日 15%

9月30日 14%

Polymarket
新規

9月17日

$478 Vol.

3%

9月18日

$39 Vol.

6%

9月19日

$486 Vol.

1%

9月20日

$507 Vol.

5%

9月21日

$39 Vol.

9%

9月22日

$39 Vol.

9%

9月23日

$58 Vol.

9%

9月24日

$119 Vol.

15%

9月25日

$60 Vol.

16%

9月26日

$486 Vol.

3%

9月27日

$486 Vol.

2%

9月28日

$58 Vol.

7%

9月29日

$102 Vol.

7%

9月30日

$139 Vol.

14%

9月30日までにリリースなし

$139 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a fragmented outlook for the next Claude Opus release because Anthropic’s recent cadence shows rapid but unpredictable iteration within the 5-series, with Opus 5 shipping July 24 after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1. Unverified social-media rumors point to an Opus 5.2 window of September 17–18 or late month, yet no official model card, benchmark leak, or API listing has surfaced as of mid-September. Platform updates on September 16 focused on unified chat, Claude Docs, and Slides rather than new large-language-model capabilities, underscoring that engineering resources may currently prioritize integration over frontier model refreshes. With no single date exceeding 15.5% implied probability, the market reflects uncertainty over whether competitive pressure from OpenAI or internal benchmarks will trigger an imminent drop or push the timeline past September 30.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.

Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,387
終了日
2026/10/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a fragmented outlook for the next Claude Opus release because Anthropic’s recent cadence shows rapid but unpredictable iteration within the 5-series, with Opus 5 shipping July 24 after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1. Unverified social-media rumors point to an Opus 5.2 window of September 17–18 or late month, yet no official model card, benchmark leak, or API listing has surfaced as of mid-September. Platform updates on September 16 focused on unified chat, Claude Docs, and Slides rather than new large-language-model capabilities, underscoring that engineering resources may currently prioritize integration over frontier model refreshes. With no single date exceeding 15.5% implied probability, the market reflects uncertainty over whether competitive pressure from OpenAI or internal benchmarks will trigger an imminent drop or push the timeline past September 30.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.

Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,387
終了日
2026/10/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x69c47De9D...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「次のクロード・オーパスは… ?」はPolymarket上の16個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「9月30日までにリリースなし」で17%、次いで「9月25日」が16%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、17¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に17%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「次のクロード・オーパスは… ?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Sep 16, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「次のクロード・オーパスは… ?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている16個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次のクロード・オーパスは… ?」の現在のフロントランナーは「9月30日までにリリースなし」で17%であり、市場がこの結果に17%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「9月25日」で16%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次のクロード・オーパスは… ?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。