Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6,000ドル未満 27%
7,000～7,500ドル 19%
6,000～6,500ドル 18%
8,000ドル超 16%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
27%
6,000～6,500ドル
18%
6,500〜7,000ドル
20%
7,000～7,500ドル
19%
7,500～8,000ドル
13%
8,000ドル超
16%
6,000ドル未満 27%
7,000～7,500ドル 19%
6,000～6,500ドル 18%
8,000ドル超 16%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$12,476 Vol.
27%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,400 Vol.
18%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$2,275 Vol.
20%
7,000～7,500ドル
$1,060 Vol.
19%
7,500～8,000ドル
$1,723 Vol.
13%
8,000ドル超
$2,028 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$20,962終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$20,962終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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