Strong corporate earnings growth, particularly from AI infrastructure spending, has driven S&P 500 gains of roughly 17% year-to-date to around 7,673 as of early September 2026, positioning the >8,000 close as the leading Polymarket outcome at 38.5%. Analysts at HSBC and other major firms have recently lifted year-end targets to 8,000–8,100, citing 25%+ EPS expansion in the second half and a high rate of earnings beats. Market-implied odds for the 7,000–8,000 range reflect ongoing uncertainty from elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts ahead of midterms. Trader capital at these levels aggregates views on earnings resilience versus macro risks into a skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 29%
7,000～7,500ドル 22%
7,500～8,000ドル 22%
6,500〜7,000ドル 10%
$41,611 Vol.
$41,611 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
7%
6,000～6,500ドル
6%
6,500〜7,000ドル
10%
7,000～7,500ドル
22%
7,500～8,000ドル
22%
8,000ドル超
36%
8,000ドル超 29%
7,000～7,500ドル 22%
7,500～8,000ドル 22%
6,500〜7,000ドル 10%
$41,611 Vol.
$41,611 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$21,149 Vol.
7%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,365 Vol.
6%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,577 Vol.
10%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,746 Vol.
22%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,293 Vol.
22%
8,000ドル超
$6,482 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, particularly from AI infrastructure spending, has driven S&P 500 gains of roughly 17% year-to-date to around 7,673 as of early September 2026, positioning the >8,000 close as the leading Polymarket outcome at 38.5%. Analysts at HSBC and other major firms have recently lifted year-end targets to 8,000–8,100, citing 25%+ EPS expansion in the second half and a high rate of earnings beats. Market-implied odds for the 7,000–8,000 range reflect ongoing uncertainty from elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts ahead of midterms. Trader capital at these levels aggregates views on earnings resilience versus macro risks into a skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$41,611終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, particularly from AI infrastructure spending, has driven S&P 500 gains of roughly 17% year-to-date to around 7,673 as of early September 2026, positioning the >8,000 close as the leading Polymarket outcome at 38.5%. Analysts at HSBC and other major firms have recently lifted year-end targets to 8,000–8,100, citing 25%+ EPS expansion in the second half and a high rate of earnings beats. Market-implied odds for the 7,000–8,000 range reflect ongoing uncertainty from elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts ahead of midterms. Trader capital at these levels aggregates views on earnings resilience versus macro risks into a skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$41,611終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETStrong corporate earnings growth, particularly from AI infrastructure spending, has driven S&P 500 gains of roughly 17% year-to-date to around 7,673 as of early September 2026, positioning the >8,000 close as the leading Polymarket outcome at 38.5%. Analysts at HSBC and other major firms have recently lifted year-end targets to 8,000–8,100, citing 25%+ EPS expansion in the second half and a high rate of earnings beats. Market-implied odds for the 7,000–8,000 range reflect ongoing uncertainty from elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts ahead of midterms. Trader capital at these levels aggregates views on earnings resilience versus macro risks into a skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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