Trader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at end-2026 reflects balanced optimism around earnings momentum, with the >8,000 bucket holding a slim edge at 23% implied probability over the 7,500–8,000 range at 21%. From current levels near 7,390 in early June 2026, recent upgrades such as Goldman Sachs raising its year-end target to 8,000 underscore solid corporate profit growth, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending. However, sticky inflation readings—headline CPI near 3.3% and core PCE around 3.3% through recent months—alongside a 4.3% unemployment rate and geopolitical pressures on energy prices introduce downside risks that cap conviction in the highest buckets. Upcoming data releases and any shifts in Federal Reserve communications on rate policy remain key swing factors that could tilt the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 24%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
7,000～7,500ドル 20%
6,500〜7,000ドル 14%
$30,070 Vol.
$30,070 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
12%
6,000～6,500ドル
11%
6,500〜7,000ドル
14%
7,000～7,500ドル
20%
7,500～8,000ドル
21%
8,000ドル超
24%
8,000ドル超 24%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
7,000～7,500ドル 20%
6,500〜7,000ドル 14%
$30,070 Vol.
$30,070 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$17,357 Vol.
12%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,802 Vol.
11%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$3,062 Vol.
14%
7,000～7,500ドル
$1,575 Vol.
20%
7,500～8,000ドル
$3,019 Vol.
21%
8,000ドル超
$3,255 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at end-2026 reflects balanced optimism around earnings momentum, with the >8,000 bucket holding a slim edge at 23% implied probability over the 7,500–8,000 range at 21%. From current levels near 7,390 in early June 2026, recent upgrades such as Goldman Sachs raising its year-end target to 8,000 underscore solid corporate profit growth, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending. However, sticky inflation readings—headline CPI near 3.3% and core PCE around 3.3% through recent months—alongside a 4.3% unemployment rate and geopolitical pressures on energy prices introduce downside risks that cap conviction in the highest buckets. Upcoming data releases and any shifts in Federal Reserve communications on rate policy remain key swing factors that could tilt the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$30,070終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at end-2026 reflects balanced optimism around earnings momentum, with the >8,000 bucket holding a slim edge at 23% implied probability over the 7,500–8,000 range at 21%. From current levels near 7,390 in early June 2026, recent upgrades such as Goldman Sachs raising its year-end target to 8,000 underscore solid corporate profit growth, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending. However, sticky inflation readings—headline CPI near 3.3% and core PCE around 3.3% through recent months—alongside a 4.3% unemployment rate and geopolitical pressures on energy prices introduce downside risks that cap conviction in the highest buckets. Upcoming data releases and any shifts in Federal Reserve communications on rate policy remain key swing factors that could tilt the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$30,070終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at end-2026 reflects balanced optimism around earnings momentum, with the >8,000 bucket holding a slim edge at 23% implied probability over the 7,500–8,000 range at 21%. From current levels near 7,390 in early June 2026, recent upgrades such as Goldman Sachs raising its year-end target to 8,000 underscore solid corporate profit growth, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure spending. However, sticky inflation readings—headline CPI near 3.3% and core PCE around 3.3% through recent months—alongside a 4.3% unemployment rate and geopolitical pressures on energy prices introduce downside risks that cap conviction in the highest buckets. Upcoming data releases and any shifts in Federal Reserve communications on rate policy remain key swing factors that could tilt the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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