Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 meeting, with a close 40.5% for a 25 basis point increase, driven by the Eurozone's March 2026 CPI surge to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The ECB held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19, while sharply upgrading its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% above the 2% target, signaling hawkish risks without immediate action. This positions cuts as negligible (<1%), with trader capital reflecting sticky inflation dynamics versus resilient growth. The April 30 policy decision looms as the pivotal near-term catalyst ahead of June.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트No change 56%
25 bps Increase 41%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$14,648 거래량
$14,648 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
56%
25 bps Increase
41%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 56%
25 bps Increase 41%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$14,648 거래량
$14,648 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$2,514 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,266 거래량
<1%
No change
$3,345 거래량
56%
25 bps Increase
$3,180 거래량
41%
50+ bps increase
$3,344 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 meeting, with a close 40.5% for a 25 basis point increase, driven by the Eurozone's March 2026 CPI surge to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The ECB held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19, while sharply upgrading its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% above the 2% target, signaling hawkish risks without immediate action. This positions cuts as negligible (<1%), with trader capital reflecting sticky inflation dynamics versus resilient growth. The April 30 policy decision looms as the pivotal near-term catalyst ahead of June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$14,648종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 meeting, with a close 40.5% for a 25 basis point increase, driven by the Eurozone's March 2026 CPI surge to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The ECB held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19, while sharply upgrading its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% above the 2% target, signaling hawkish risks without immediate action. This positions cuts as negligible (<1%), with trader capital reflecting sticky inflation dynamics versus resilient growth. The April 30 policy decision looms as the pivotal near-term catalyst ahead of June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$14,648종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 meeting, with a close 40.5% for a 25 basis point increase, driven by the Eurozone's March 2026 CPI surge to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The ECB held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19, while sharply upgrading its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% above the 2% target, signaling hawkish risks without immediate action. This positions cuts as negligible (<1%), with trader capital reflecting sticky inflation dynamics versus resilient growth. The April 30 policy decision looms as the pivotal near-term catalyst ahead of June.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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