Polymarket traders assign a 57.5% implied probability to no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's data-dependent stance following its March 19 hold of the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Surging Eurozone HICP inflation to 2.5% in March—up sharply from 1.9% in February—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, has elevated 25 basis point hike odds to 23.5%, with ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noting the economy sits between baseline and adverse scenarios without committing to action. Cuts remain negligible (<1%) amid sticky services inflation, while the April 29 meeting looms as a pivotal data checkpoint ahead of June.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트No change 58%
25 bps Increase 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$15,286 거래량
$15,286 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
58%
25 bps Increase
23%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 58%
25 bps Increase 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$15,286 거래량
$15,286 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$2,639 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,391 거래량
1%
No change
$3,471 거래량
58%
25 bps Increase
$3,316 거래량
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,469 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 57.5% implied probability to no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's data-dependent stance following its March 19 hold of the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Surging Eurozone HICP inflation to 2.5% in March—up sharply from 1.9% in February—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, has elevated 25 basis point hike odds to 23.5%, with ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noting the economy sits between baseline and adverse scenarios without committing to action. Cuts remain negligible (<1%) amid sticky services inflation, while the April 29 meeting looms as a pivotal data checkpoint ahead of June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$15,286종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 57.5% implied probability to no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's data-dependent stance following its March 19 hold of the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Surging Eurozone HICP inflation to 2.5% in March—up sharply from 1.9% in February—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, has elevated 25 basis point hike odds to 23.5%, with ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noting the economy sits between baseline and adverse scenarios without committing to action. Cuts remain negligible (<1%) amid sticky services inflation, while the April 29 meeting looms as a pivotal data checkpoint ahead of June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$15,286종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 57.5% implied probability to no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's data-dependent stance following its March 19 hold of the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Surging Eurozone HICP inflation to 2.5% in March—up sharply from 1.9% in February—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, has elevated 25 basis point hike odds to 23.5%, with ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noting the economy sits between baseline and adverse scenarios without committing to action. Cuts remain negligible (<1%) amid sticky services inflation, while the April 29 meeting looms as a pivotal data checkpoint ahead of June.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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