Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 13 6%
$35,819 거래량
$35,819 거래량
2026.05.31
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
2%
May 8
8%
May 9
1%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
7%
May 13
6%
May 14
5%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
5%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
7%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
2%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
31%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 13 6%
$35,819 거래량
$35,819 거래량
2026.05.31
On or prior to May 6
$1,428 거래량
<1%
May 7
$788 거래량
2%
May 8
$499 거래량
8%
May 9
$2,773 거래량
1%
May 10
$2,853 거래량
3%
May 11
$554 거래량
3%
May 12
$567 거래량
7%
May 13
$604 거래량
6%
May 14
$526 거래량
5%
May 15
$524 거래량
2%
May 16
$2,806 거래량
<1%
May 17
$2,818 거래량
<1%
May 18
$752 거래량
4%
May 19
$1,292 거래량
34%
May 20
$857 거래량
5%
May 21
$791 거래량
3%
May 22
$771 거래량
2%
May 23
$2,581 거래량
<1%
May 24
$2,626 거래량
1%
May 25
$596 거래량
3%
May 26
$601 거래량
1%
May 27
$586 거래량
7%
May 28
$586 거래량
<1%
May 29
$611 거래량
1%
May 30
$2,995 거래량
2%
May 31
$2,762 거래량
1%
No release by May 31
$673 거래량
31%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
거래량
$35,819종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$35,819종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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