**Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election.** Tokuda secured comfortable reelection in 2024 following her 2022 victory, bolstered by recent endorsements from key labor groups including the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and the Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, amid no announced Democratic primary challengers ahead of the August 8 open primary. Republican state Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa announced his bid last fall, but the district's D+14 partisan lean and historical Democratic margins exceeding 20 points present formidable barriers. Scenarios like a bruising Democratic primary, Tokuda's retirement, personal scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap, though traders see limited catalysts absent major disruptions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$39,766 거래량
$39,766 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$39,766 거래량
$39,766 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$30,904 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$8,862 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election.** Tokuda secured comfortable reelection in 2024 following her 2022 victory, bolstered by recent endorsements from key labor groups including the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and the Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, amid no announced Democratic primary challengers ahead of the August 8 open primary. Republican state Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa announced his bid last fall, but the district's D+14 partisan lean and historical Democratic margins exceeding 20 points present formidable barriers. Scenarios like a bruising Democratic primary, Tokuda's retirement, personal scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap, though traders see limited catalysts absent major disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$39,766종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election.** Tokuda secured comfortable reelection in 2024 following her 2022 victory, bolstered by recent endorsements from key labor groups including the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and the Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, amid no announced Democratic primary challengers ahead of the August 8 open primary. Republican state Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa announced his bid last fall, but the district's D+14 partisan lean and historical Democratic margins exceeding 20 points present formidable barriers. Scenarios like a bruising Democratic primary, Tokuda's retirement, personal scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap, though traders see limited catalysts absent major disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$39,766종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election.** Tokuda secured comfortable reelection in 2024 following her 2022 victory, bolstered by recent endorsements from key labor groups including the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and the Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, amid no announced Democratic primary challengers ahead of the August 8 open primary. Republican state Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa announced his bid last fall, but the district's D+14 partisan lean and historical Democratic margins exceeding 20 points present formidable barriers. Scenarios like a bruising Democratic primary, Tokuda's retirement, personal scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap, though traders see limited catalysts absent major disruptions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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