Democratic Representative Jill Tokuda’s incumbency and the district’s entrenched partisan lean anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the 2026 HI-02 general election. The seat carries a Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+12, consistent with no Republican general-election victory in Hawaii’s House districts since 1988. Tokuda, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, filed for another term in early June 2026 and secured early labor endorsements, while the Republican primary features limited-name recognition challengers. Primaries occur August 8 and the general election November 3. Only an unforeseen scandal, health development, or national political realignment of historic scale would plausibly shift the implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$58,375 거래량
$58,375 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
7%
$58,375 거래량
$58,375 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$43,039 거래량
95%
공화당
$15,336 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Representative Jill Tokuda’s incumbency and the district’s entrenched partisan lean anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the 2026 HI-02 general election. The seat carries a Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+12, consistent with no Republican general-election victory in Hawaii’s House districts since 1988. Tokuda, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, filed for another term in early June 2026 and secured early labor endorsements, while the Republican primary features limited-name recognition challengers. Primaries occur August 8 and the general election November 3. Only an unforeseen scandal, health development, or national political realignment of historic scale would plausibly shift the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$58,375종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Representative Jill Tokuda’s incumbency and the district’s entrenched partisan lean anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the 2026 HI-02 general election. The seat carries a Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+12, consistent with no Republican general-election victory in Hawaii’s House districts since 1988. Tokuda, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, filed for another term in early June 2026 and secured early labor endorsements, while the Republican primary features limited-name recognition challengers. Primaries occur August 8 and the general election November 3. Only an unforeseen scandal, health development, or national political realignment of historic scale would plausibly shift the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$58,375종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Representative Jill Tokuda’s incumbency and the district’s entrenched partisan lean anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the 2026 HI-02 general election. The seat carries a Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+12, consistent with no Republican general-election victory in Hawaii’s House districts since 1988. Tokuda, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, filed for another term in early June 2026 and secured early labor endorsements, while the Republican primary features limited-name recognition challengers. Primaries occur August 8 and the general election November 3. Only an unforeseen scandal, health development, or national political realignment of historic scale would plausibly shift the implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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