Trader consensus on Polymarket places an 88.5% implied probability on no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years globally, with the last VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory indicators like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable volcanoes. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, including 40 ongoing, but all at VEI ≤4, with routine activity at sites like Yellowstone and Great Sitkin showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale events. Recent weekly updates through early April highlight minor unrest, such as at Mount Ibu and Kanlaon, but nothing signaling VEI ≥6 potential; traders await ongoing GVP surveillance and seismic data for any shifts before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$53,024 거래량
$53,024 거래량
2027.03.31
예
$53,024 거래량
$53,024 거래량
2027.03.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket places an 88.5% implied probability on no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years globally, with the last VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory indicators like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable volcanoes. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, including 40 ongoing, but all at VEI ≤4, with routine activity at sites like Yellowstone and Great Sitkin showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale events. Recent weekly updates through early April highlight minor unrest, such as at Mount Ibu and Kanlaon, but nothing signaling VEI ≥6 potential; traders await ongoing GVP surveillance and seismic data for any shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$53,024종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket places an 88.5% implied probability on no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years globally, with the last VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory indicators like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable volcanoes. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, including 40 ongoing, but all at VEI ≤4, with routine activity at sites like Yellowstone and Great Sitkin showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale events. Recent weekly updates through early April highlight minor unrest, such as at Mount Ibu and Kanlaon, but nothing signaling VEI ≥6 potential; traders await ongoing GVP surveillance and seismic data for any shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
거래량
$53,024종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket places an 88.5% implied probability on no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years globally, with the last VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory indicators like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable volcanoes. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, including 40 ongoing, but all at VEI ≤4, with routine activity at sites like Yellowstone and Great Sitkin showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale events. Recent weekly updates through early April highlight minor unrest, such as at Mount Ibu and Kanlaon, but nothing signaling VEI ≥6 potential; traders await ongoing GVP surveillance and seismic data for any shifts before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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