Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record and 36% for first, reflecting the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amplified by a forecasted shift to El Niño conditions. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm 2025 as the third-warmest year globally, trailing 2024 and 2023, while January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies of about 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% favored through June per NOAA) are expected to transition to El Niño by May–July (61% chance), historically boosting annual temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C as seen in prior events. Monthly global temperature reports and the next ENSO update in late April will refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 52%
1 36%
4 5.1%
3 4.5%
$2,621,904 거래량
$2,621,904 거래량
2026.12.31
1
36%
2
52%
3
5%
4
5%
5
1%
6위 이하
3%
2 52%
1 36%
4 5.1%
3 4.5%
$2,621,904 거래량
$2,621,904 거래량
2026.12.31
1
$414,561 거래량
36%
2
$289,465 거래량
52%
3
$387,818 거래량
5%
4
$386,657 거래량
5%
5
$697,969 거래량
1%
6위 이하
$445,501 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record and 36% for first, reflecting the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amplified by a forecasted shift to El Niño conditions. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm 2025 as the third-warmest year globally, trailing 2024 and 2023, while January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies of about 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% favored through June per NOAA) are expected to transition to El Niño by May–July (61% chance), historically boosting annual temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C as seen in prior events. Monthly global temperature reports and the next ENSO update in late April will refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$2,621,904종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record and 36% for first, reflecting the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amplified by a forecasted shift to El Niño conditions. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm 2025 as the third-warmest year globally, trailing 2024 and 2023, while January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies of about 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% favored through June per NOAA) are expected to transition to El Niño by May–July (61% chance), historically boosting annual temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C as seen in prior events. Monthly global temperature reports and the next ENSO update in late April will refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,621,904종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 51.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record and 36% for first, reflecting the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amplified by a forecasted shift to El Niño conditions. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm 2025 as the third-warmest year globally, trailing 2024 and 2023, while January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies of about 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Current ENSO-neutral conditions (80% favored through June per NOAA) are expected to transition to El Niño by May–July (61% chance), historically boosting annual temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C as seen in prior events. Monthly global temperature reports and the next ENSO update in late April will refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문