With six SpaceX Falcon 9 launches already successfully completed by April 16—including a pair on April 11 featuring Starlink Group 17-21 and Northrop Grumman's NG-24 Cygnus resupply to the ISS, plus Starlink missions on April 7, 14 (marking the 1,000th satellite deployed in 2026), and 15—traders are closely split between 13 total launches at 40.5% implied probability and ≤11 at 37%, highlighting uncertainty in sustaining the breakneck Starlink cadence across Vandenberg SLC-4E and Cape Canaveral SLC-40 pads. Key swing factors include confirmed upcoming slots for Starlink Group 17-22 on April 18, GPS III-10 on the 20th, and Starlinks on April 22 and 25, plus a TBD Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3; range availability, weather delays, or surprise manifest additions could tip the balance toward higher totals or force slips below 12.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트≤11 37.0%
13 24%
12 19.9%
14 4.0%
$43,437 거래량
$43,437 거래량
≤11
37%
12
20%
13
36%
14
4%
15
3%
16
2%
17회 이상
1%
≤11 37.0%
13 24%
12 19.9%
14 4.0%
$43,437 거래량
$43,437 거래량
≤11
37%
12
20%
13
36%
14
4%
15
3%
16
2%
17회 이상
1%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With six SpaceX Falcon 9 launches already successfully completed by April 16—including a pair on April 11 featuring Starlink Group 17-21 and Northrop Grumman's NG-24 Cygnus resupply to the ISS, plus Starlink missions on April 7, 14 (marking the 1,000th satellite deployed in 2026), and 15—traders are closely split between 13 total launches at 40.5% implied probability and ≤11 at 37%, highlighting uncertainty in sustaining the breakneck Starlink cadence across Vandenberg SLC-4E and Cape Canaveral SLC-40 pads. Key swing factors include confirmed upcoming slots for Starlink Group 17-22 on April 18, GPS III-10 on the 20th, and Starlinks on April 22 and 25, plus a TBD Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3; range availability, weather delays, or surprise manifest additions could tip the balance toward higher totals or force slips below 12.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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