Trader consensus prices 8+ magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes at 79.5% implied probability by June 30, 2026, propelled by a recent cluster in the Pacific Ring of Fire: a 7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, lifting the USGS-confirmed tally to four since the market period began December 4, 2025. This pace aligns with or slightly exceeds the USGS historical baseline of 15-16 such events annually worldwide, driven by steady tectonic strain accumulation on subduction zones and other active faults. With 75 days remaining, models suggest 3-5 more likely under Poisson-distributed seismicity, though inherent stochastic uncertainty persists; continuous USGS seismic network updates could shift odds as new events finalize in their catalog.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트8회 이상 80%
7 17%
6 3.4%
$1,817,468 거래량
$1,817,468 거래량
2026.06.30
6
3%
7
17%
8회 이상
80%
8회 이상 80%
7 17%
6 3.4%
$1,817,468 거래량
$1,817,468 거래량
2026.06.30
6
$118,438 거래량
3%
7
$277,633 거래량
17%
8회 이상
$537,273 거래량
80%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus prices 8+ magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes at 79.5% implied probability by June 30, 2026, propelled by a recent cluster in the Pacific Ring of Fire: a 7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, lifting the USGS-confirmed tally to four since the market period began December 4, 2025. This pace aligns with or slightly exceeds the USGS historical baseline of 15-16 such events annually worldwide, driven by steady tectonic strain accumulation on subduction zones and other active faults. With 75 days remaining, models suggest 3-5 more likely under Poisson-distributed seismicity, though inherent stochastic uncertainty persists; continuous USGS seismic network updates could shift odds as new events finalize in their catalog.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
거래량
$1,817,468종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus prices 8+ magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes at 79.5% implied probability by June 30, 2026, propelled by a recent cluster in the Pacific Ring of Fire: a 7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, lifting the USGS-confirmed tally to four since the market period began December 4, 2025. This pace aligns with or slightly exceeds the USGS historical baseline of 15-16 such events annually worldwide, driven by steady tectonic strain accumulation on subduction zones and other active faults. With 75 days remaining, models suggest 3-5 more likely under Poisson-distributed seismicity, though inherent stochastic uncertainty persists; continuous USGS seismic network updates could shift odds as new events finalize in their catalog.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
거래량
$1,817,468종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices 8+ magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes at 79.5% implied probability by June 30, 2026, propelled by a recent cluster in the Pacific Ring of Fire: a 7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, lifting the USGS-confirmed tally to four since the market period began December 4, 2025. This pace aligns with or slightly exceeds the USGS historical baseline of 15-16 such events annually worldwide, driven by steady tectonic strain accumulation on subduction zones and other active faults. With 75 days remaining, models suggest 3-5 more likely under Poisson-distributed seismicity, though inherent stochastic uncertainty persists; continuous USGS seismic network updates could shift odds as new events finalize in their catalog.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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