Trader consensus on Polymarket, with >9 earthquakes at 39% implied probability, reflects USGS historical seismic catalogs showing a global baseline of roughly 10-12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week under the moment magnitude scale, amid normally distributed Poisson-like activity along active fault lines worldwide. Through April 16, USGS has cataloged four such quakes: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, with minor aftershocks below threshold), M5.7 south of Africa (April 14), and M5.7 near Costa Rica (April 15). Absent swarms or tectonic precursors for escalation, the market anticipates 6 more in the remaining three days to reach higher tallies, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates ahead of April 19 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 13일 ~ 4월 19일 중 지진이 5.5회 이상인 경우는 몇 건인가요?
4월 13일 ~ 4월 19일 중 지진이 5.5회 이상인 경우는 몇 건인가요?
>9 38%
8 16%
9 15%
7 14%
$110,322 거래량
$110,322 거래량
2026.04.19
≤3
<1%
4
2%
5
7%
6
9%
7
14%
8
16%
9
15%
>9
38%
>9 38%
8 16%
9 15%
7 14%
$110,322 거래량
$110,322 거래량
2026.04.19
≤3
$72,251 거래량
<1%
4
$7,252 거래량
2%
5
$2,903 거래량
7%
6
$1,311 거래량
9%
7
$1,894 거래량
14%
8
$2,654 거래량
16%
9
$1,639 거래량
15%
>9
$20,417 거래량
38%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with >9 earthquakes at 39% implied probability, reflects USGS historical seismic catalogs showing a global baseline of roughly 10-12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week under the moment magnitude scale, amid normally distributed Poisson-like activity along active fault lines worldwide. Through April 16, USGS has cataloged four such quakes: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, with minor aftershocks below threshold), M5.7 south of Africa (April 14), and M5.7 near Costa Rica (April 15). Absent swarms or tectonic precursors for escalation, the market anticipates 6 more in the remaining three days to reach higher tallies, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates ahead of April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
거래량
$110,322종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with >9 earthquakes at 39% implied probability, reflects USGS historical seismic catalogs showing a global baseline of roughly 10-12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week under the moment magnitude scale, amid normally distributed Poisson-like activity along active fault lines worldwide. Through April 16, USGS has cataloged four such quakes: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, with minor aftershocks below threshold), M5.7 south of Africa (April 14), and M5.7 near Costa Rica (April 15). Absent swarms or tectonic precursors for escalation, the market anticipates 6 more in the remaining three days to reach higher tallies, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates ahead of April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$110,322종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with >9 earthquakes at 39% implied probability, reflects USGS historical seismic catalogs showing a global baseline of roughly 10-12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week under the moment magnitude scale, amid normally distributed Poisson-like activity along active fault lines worldwide. Through April 16, USGS has cataloged four such quakes: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, with minor aftershocks below threshold), M5.7 south of Africa (April 14), and M5.7 near Costa Rica (April 15). Absent swarms or tectonic precursors for escalation, the market anticipates 6 more in the remaining three days to reach higher tallies, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates ahead of April 19 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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