Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 (66% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with historical baselines from the U.S. Geological Survey, where such events average fewer than one per week—about 50-70 annually—following a Poisson distribution that makes null weeks common (over 60% historically). Recent quietude follows the M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and subsequent M6.0-M6.2 events, with no ongoing aftershock sequences, fault slip anomalies, or precursory swarms elevating risk. With three days left, probabilities hinge on real-time USGS catalog updates, as short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to tectonic unpredictability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 13일부터 19일까지 6.5 이상의 지진은 몇 건입니까?
4월 13일부터 19일까지 6.5 이상의 지진은 몇 건입니까?
0 66%
1 25%
2 6%
3 1.5%
$35,576 거래량
$35,576 거래량
2026.04.19
0
66%
1
25%
2
6%
3
2%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 66%
1 25%
2 6%
3 1.5%
$35,576 거래량
$35,576 거래량
2026.04.19
0
$11,235 거래량
66%
1
$7,278 거래량
25%
2
$3,829 거래량
6%
3
$1,860 거래량
2%
4
$6,147 거래량
1%
5
$2,225 거래량
<1%
>5
$3,002 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 (66% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with historical baselines from the U.S. Geological Survey, where such events average fewer than one per week—about 50-70 annually—following a Poisson distribution that makes null weeks common (over 60% historically). Recent quietude follows the M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and subsequent M6.0-M6.2 events, with no ongoing aftershock sequences, fault slip anomalies, or precursory swarms elevating risk. With three days left, probabilities hinge on real-time USGS catalog updates, as short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to tectonic unpredictability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
거래량
$35,576종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 (66% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with historical baselines from the U.S. Geological Survey, where such events average fewer than one per week—about 50-70 annually—following a Poisson distribution that makes null weeks common (over 60% historically). Recent quietude follows the M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and subsequent M6.0-M6.2 events, with no ongoing aftershock sequences, fault slip anomalies, or precursory swarms elevating risk. With three days left, probabilities hinge on real-time USGS catalog updates, as short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to tectonic unpredictability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$35,576종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 (66% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with historical baselines from the U.S. Geological Survey, where such events average fewer than one per week—about 50-70 annually—following a Poisson distribution that makes null weeks common (over 60% historically). Recent quietude follows the M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and subsequent M6.0-M6.2 events, with no ongoing aftershock sequences, fault slip anomalies, or precursory swarms elevating risk. With three days left, probabilities hinge on real-time USGS catalog updates, as short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to tectonic unpredictability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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