Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a robust early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical year-to-date average of around 250 by mid-April. Deadly March outbreaks, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois-Indiana, and a recent April 14 EF3 in Wisconsin, reflect persistent atmospheric instability, ample Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear amid transitioning La Niña conditions favoring severe thunderstorms. Forecasts from agencies like NOAA and private models project near-to-above the 1,225 annual average, with peak April-June activity ahead; however, final counts undergo post-season revision, introducing uncertainty as patterns could shift with evolving jet stream dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1250+ 37%
1000–1049 21.5%
1150~1199 8.0%
<950 7%
$64,519 거래량
$64,519 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
7%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
21%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
4%
1150~1199
8%
1200~1249
11%
1250+
37%
1250+ 37%
1000–1049 21.5%
1150~1199 8.0%
<950 7%
$64,519 거래량
$64,519 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
$21,622 거래량
7%
950–999
$2,049 거래량
4%
1000–1049
$1,534 거래량
21%
1050–1099
$7,106 거래량
5%
1100–1149
$1,375 거래량
4%
1150~1199
$1,708 거래량
8%
1200~1249
$14,432 거래량
11%
1250+
$14,692 거래량
37%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a robust early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical year-to-date average of around 250 by mid-April. Deadly March outbreaks, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois-Indiana, and a recent April 14 EF3 in Wisconsin, reflect persistent atmospheric instability, ample Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear amid transitioning La Niña conditions favoring severe thunderstorms. Forecasts from agencies like NOAA and private models project near-to-above the 1,225 annual average, with peak April-June activity ahead; however, final counts undergo post-season revision, introducing uncertainty as patterns could shift with evolving jet stream dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
거래량
$64,519종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a robust early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical year-to-date average of around 250 by mid-April. Deadly March outbreaks, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois-Indiana, and a recent April 14 EF3 in Wisconsin, reflect persistent atmospheric instability, ample Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear amid transitioning La Niña conditions favoring severe thunderstorms. Forecasts from agencies like NOAA and private models project near-to-above the 1,225 annual average, with peak April-June activity ahead; however, final counts undergo post-season revision, introducing uncertainty as patterns could shift with evolving jet stream dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
거래량
$64,519종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a robust early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical year-to-date average of around 250 by mid-April. Deadly March outbreaks, including EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois-Indiana, and a recent April 14 EF3 in Wisconsin, reflect persistent atmospheric instability, ample Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear amid transitioning La Niña conditions favoring severe thunderstorms. Forecasts from agencies like NOAA and private models project near-to-above the 1,225 annual average, with peak April-June activity ahead; however, final counts undergo post-season revision, introducing uncertainty as patterns could shift with evolving jet stream dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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