Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that April 3, 2026, registered a global near-surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.6°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, positioning it as the third-hottest day on record behind peaks from July 2023 and 2024. This drives the market-implied 80.5% probability for April 2026's hottest day ranking third overall, with trader consensus reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of confirmed observations amid ongoing baseline warming from human-induced climate change. ENSO-neutral conditions through April-June 2026, per NOAA, have not suppressed heat as a fading La Niña might have, but forecasts indicate low intensification risk for remaining days. Updated Berkeley Earth validations and final monthly reports expected soon could refine rankings, though seasonal cooling analogs limit upside for 1st or 2nd.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026 년 4 월 1 일, 2 일, 3 일 기록상 가장 뜨거운?
2026 년 4 월 1 일, 2 일, 3 일 기록상 가장 뜨거운?
세 번째로 더운 81%
두 번째로 더움 13%
사상 최고 4.1%
4위 또는 그 이하 3.5%
$78,837 거래량
$78,837 거래량
2026.05.10
사상 최고
4%
두 번째로 더움
13%
세 번째로 더운
81%
4위 또는 그 이하
4%
세 번째로 더운 81%
두 번째로 더움 13%
사상 최고 4.1%
4위 또는 그 이하 3.5%
$78,837 거래량
$78,837 거래량
2026.05.10
사상 최고
$7,977 거래량
4%
두 번째로 더움
$21,573 거래량
13%
세 번째로 더운
$17,388 거래량
81%
4위 또는 그 이하
$31,900 거래량
4%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that April 3, 2026, registered a global near-surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.6°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, positioning it as the third-hottest day on record behind peaks from July 2023 and 2024. This drives the market-implied 80.5% probability for April 2026's hottest day ranking third overall, with trader consensus reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of confirmed observations amid ongoing baseline warming from human-induced climate change. ENSO-neutral conditions through April-June 2026, per NOAA, have not suppressed heat as a fading La Niña might have, but forecasts indicate low intensification risk for remaining days. Updated Berkeley Earth validations and final monthly reports expected soon could refine rankings, though seasonal cooling analogs limit upside for 1st or 2nd.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
거래량
$78,837종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that April 3, 2026, registered a global near-surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.6°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, positioning it as the third-hottest day on record behind peaks from July 2023 and 2024. This drives the market-implied 80.5% probability for April 2026's hottest day ranking third overall, with trader consensus reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of confirmed observations amid ongoing baseline warming from human-induced climate change. ENSO-neutral conditions through April-June 2026, per NOAA, have not suppressed heat as a fading La Niña might have, but forecasts indicate low intensification risk for remaining days. Updated Berkeley Earth validations and final monthly reports expected soon could refine rankings, though seasonal cooling analogs limit upside for 1st or 2nd.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$78,837종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that April 3, 2026, registered a global near-surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.6°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, positioning it as the third-hottest day on record behind peaks from July 2023 and 2024. This drives the market-implied 80.5% probability for April 2026's hottest day ranking third overall, with trader consensus reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of confirmed observations amid ongoing baseline warming from human-induced climate change. ENSO-neutral conditions through April-June 2026, per NOAA, have not suppressed heat as a fading La Niña might have, but forecasts indicate low intensification risk for remaining days. Updated Berkeley Earth validations and final monthly reports expected soon could refine rankings, though seasonal cooling analogs limit upside for 1st or 2nd.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문