Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as they would require a fault rupture exceeding 14,000 kilometers—nearly the planet's circumference—with no such structure known to exist. The largest recorded event remains the 1960 Chile quake at moment magnitude (Mw) 9.5, generated along a major subduction zone megathrust. Recent USGS monitoring shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with the strongest 2026 events below Mw 7.5, reinforcing the steady market-implied 95.9% probability for "No" before 2027. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault could theoretically shift odds, though experts deem this implausible.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$555,216 거래량
$555,216 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$555,216 거래량
$555,216 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as they would require a fault rupture exceeding 14,000 kilometers—nearly the planet's circumference—with no such structure known to exist. The largest recorded event remains the 1960 Chile quake at moment magnitude (Mw) 9.5, generated along a major subduction zone megathrust. Recent USGS monitoring shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with the strongest 2026 events below Mw 7.5, reinforcing the steady market-implied 95.9% probability for "No" before 2027. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault could theoretically shift odds, though experts deem this implausible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
거래량
$555,216종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as they would require a fault rupture exceeding 14,000 kilometers—nearly the planet's circumference—with no such structure known to exist. The largest recorded event remains the 1960 Chile quake at moment magnitude (Mw) 9.5, generated along a major subduction zone megathrust. Recent USGS monitoring shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with the strongest 2026 events below Mw 7.5, reinforcing the steady market-implied 95.9% probability for "No" before 2027. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault could theoretically shift odds, though experts deem this implausible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$555,216종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as they would require a fault rupture exceeding 14,000 kilometers—nearly the planet's circumference—with no such structure known to exist. The largest recorded event remains the 1960 Chile quake at moment magnitude (Mw) 9.5, generated along a major subduction zone megathrust. Recent USGS monitoring shows no seismic activity approaching this scale, with the strongest 2026 events below Mw 7.5, reinforcing the steady market-implied 95.9% probability for "No" before 2027. Only an unprecedented discovery of a global-scale fault could theoretically shift odds, though experts deem this implausible.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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