Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43% chance of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, with "No" leading at 57%, aligning closely with NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically 3-5 meter stony objects—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally based on U.S. satellite sensor detections since 1988. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks for 2026 per the Sentry monitoring system, where probabilities for listed objects remain below 0.004%. Recent March 2026 close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids heightened awareness without incidents, while Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports but none exceeding 5 kt. Continuous CNEOS updates and ESA optical surveys through year-end will refine undetected small-object risks amid inherent statistical uncertainties in annual frequencies.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$291,934 거래량
$291,934 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$291,934 거래량
$291,934 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43% chance of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, with "No" leading at 57%, aligning closely with NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically 3-5 meter stony objects—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally based on U.S. satellite sensor detections since 1988. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks for 2026 per the Sentry monitoring system, where probabilities for listed objects remain below 0.004%. Recent March 2026 close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids heightened awareness without incidents, while Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports but none exceeding 5 kt. Continuous CNEOS updates and ESA optical surveys through year-end will refine undetected small-object risks amid inherent statistical uncertainties in annual frequencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$291,934종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43% chance of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, with "No" leading at 57%, aligning closely with NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically 3-5 meter stony objects—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally based on U.S. satellite sensor detections since 1988. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks for 2026 per the Sentry monitoring system, where probabilities for listed objects remain below 0.004%. Recent March 2026 close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids heightened awareness without incidents, while Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports but none exceeding 5 kt. Continuous CNEOS updates and ESA optical surveys through year-end will refine undetected small-object risks amid inherent statistical uncertainties in annual frequencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$291,934종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43% chance of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, with "No" leading at 57%, aligning closely with NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically 3-5 meter stony objects—occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally based on U.S. satellite sensor detections since 1988. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks for 2026 per the Sentry monitoring system, where probabilities for listed objects remain below 0.004%. Recent March 2026 close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids heightened awareness without incidents, while Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports but none exceeding 5 kt. Continuous CNEOS updates and ESA optical surveys through year-end will refine undetected small-object risks amid inherent statistical uncertainties in annual frequencies.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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