**Trader consensus assigns a 72.5% probability to “No” on a 5 kt or greater meteor airburst in 2026 because historical bolide records and NASA Near-Earth Object monitoring show such events occur only infrequently.** Objects releasing roughly 5 kt TNT equivalent in the atmosphere have struck Earth on average less than once per year over recent decades, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (hundreds of kt) remaining the standout case in modern sensor data. Continuous surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and similar programs have identified numerous small near-Earth asteroids making close approaches this year, yet all tracked objects remain on safe trajectories with no confirmed impactors projected for the remainder of 2026. Ongoing orbital refinement and expanded detection networks further reduce the chance of an undetected threat materializing before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$305,812 거래량
$305,812 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$305,812 거래량
$305,812 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus assigns a 72.5% probability to “No” on a 5 kt or greater meteor airburst in 2026 because historical bolide records and NASA Near-Earth Object monitoring show such events occur only infrequently.** Objects releasing roughly 5 kt TNT equivalent in the atmosphere have struck Earth on average less than once per year over recent decades, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (hundreds of kt) remaining the standout case in modern sensor data. Continuous surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and similar programs have identified numerous small near-Earth asteroids making close approaches this year, yet all tracked objects remain on safe trajectories with no confirmed impactors projected for the remainder of 2026. Ongoing orbital refinement and expanded detection networks further reduce the chance of an undetected threat materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$305,812종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus assigns a 72.5% probability to “No” on a 5 kt or greater meteor airburst in 2026 because historical bolide records and NASA Near-Earth Object monitoring show such events occur only infrequently.** Objects releasing roughly 5 kt TNT equivalent in the atmosphere have struck Earth on average less than once per year over recent decades, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (hundreds of kt) remaining the standout case in modern sensor data. Continuous surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and similar programs have identified numerous small near-Earth asteroids making close approaches this year, yet all tracked objects remain on safe trajectories with no confirmed impactors projected for the remainder of 2026. Ongoing orbital refinement and expanded detection networks further reduce the chance of an undetected threat materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$305,812종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus assigns a 72.5% probability to “No” on a 5 kt or greater meteor airburst in 2026 because historical bolide records and NASA Near-Earth Object monitoring show such events occur only infrequently.** Objects releasing roughly 5 kt TNT equivalent in the atmosphere have struck Earth on average less than once per year over recent decades, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (hundreds of kt) remaining the standout case in modern sensor data. Continuous surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and similar programs have identified numerous small near-Earth asteroids making close approaches this year, yet all tracked objects remain on safe trajectories with no confirmed impactors projected for the remainder of 2026. Ongoing orbital refinement and expanded detection networks further reduce the chance of an undetected threat materializing before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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