Current NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on trajectories capable of producing a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the 71% market-implied probability of no such event. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere frequently, yet those reaching 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy remain rare based on historical bolide records from the JPL Fireball repository, with events of this scale occurring far less often than once per year on average. Early 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, but none approached the energy threshold, and ongoing surveys continue to confirm safe close approaches by meter-scale objects. Trader consensus reflects this combination of verified orbital data, model consensus on impact frequencies, and the absence of any identified risk objects through mid-year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$305,822 거래량
$305,822 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$305,822 거래량
$305,822 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on trajectories capable of producing a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the 71% market-implied probability of no such event. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere frequently, yet those reaching 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy remain rare based on historical bolide records from the JPL Fireball repository, with events of this scale occurring far less often than once per year on average. Early 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, but none approached the energy threshold, and ongoing surveys continue to confirm safe close approaches by meter-scale objects. Trader consensus reflects this combination of verified orbital data, model consensus on impact frequencies, and the absence of any identified risk objects through mid-year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$305,822종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on trajectories capable of producing a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the 71% market-implied probability of no such event. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere frequently, yet those reaching 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy remain rare based on historical bolide records from the JPL Fireball repository, with events of this scale occurring far less often than once per year on average. Early 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, but none approached the energy threshold, and ongoing surveys continue to confirm safe close approaches by meter-scale objects. Trader consensus reflects this combination of verified orbital data, model consensus on impact frequencies, and the absence of any identified risk objects through mid-year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$305,822종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on trajectories capable of producing a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the 71% market-implied probability of no such event. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere frequently, yet those reaching 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy remain rare based on historical bolide records from the JPL Fireball repository, with events of this scale occurring far less often than once per year on average. Early 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, but none approached the energy threshold, and ongoing surveys continue to confirm safe close approaches by meter-scale objects. Trader consensus reflects this combination of verified orbital data, model consensus on impact frequencies, and the absence of any identified risk objects through mid-year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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