Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry and the NEO Risk List has identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing a 100kt atmospheric explosion in 2026, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact rates for objects in this energy range remain low—roughly one event per several decades globally—with current catalogs showing only minuscule probabilities for any 2026 encounters. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits and detect new candidates, yet no model consensus or observational data signals elevated risk. While an undetected small asteroid or comet fragment could theoretically produce such an event, the absence of precursors and proximity to year-end resolution make meaningful shifts improbable absent a major new discovery.