NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) capable of a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolide for the remainder of 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—under 20 meters diameter—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.004%. This underpins the market's 94.8% implied probability for "No," reinforced by recent safe close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 and a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs (maximum ~26 kt over Houston), all well below threshold amid enhanced detections from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Trader consensus reflects comprehensive sky surveys covering most meter-class threats, though realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO from survey blind spots or a late-year undetected airburst, with continuous CNEOS updates providing key monitoring ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) capable of a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolide for the remainder of 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—under 20 meters diameter—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.004%. This underpins the market's 94.8% implied probability for "No," reinforced by recent safe close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 and a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs (maximum ~26 kt over Houston), all well below threshold amid enhanced detections from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Trader consensus reflects comprehensive sky surveys covering most meter-class threats, though realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO from survey blind spots or a late-year undetected airburst, with continuous CNEOS updates providing key monitoring ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
거래량
$7,022종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) capable of a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolide for the remainder of 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—under 20 meters diameter—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.004%. This underpins the market's 94.8% implied probability for "No," reinforced by recent safe close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 and a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs (maximum ~26 kt over Houston), all well below threshold amid enhanced detections from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Trader consensus reflects comprehensive sky surveys covering most meter-class threats, though realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO from survey blind spots or a late-year undetected airburst, with continuous CNEOS updates providing key monitoring ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$7,022종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) capable of a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolide for the remainder of 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—under 20 meters diameter—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.004%. This underpins the market's 94.8% implied probability for "No," reinforced by recent safe close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 and a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs (maximum ~26 kt over Houston), all well below threshold amid enhanced detections from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Trader consensus reflects comprehensive sky surveys covering most meter-class threats, though realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO from survey blind spots or a late-year undetected airburst, with continuous CNEOS updates providing key monitoring ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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