Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk monitoring, which detect no credible threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) for the year. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and house-sized objects in March, underscore the effectiveness of global telescope networks like ATLAS and NEOWISE in identifying potential hazards well in advance. The 23.5% tail risk accounts for undetected small bolides capable of airbursts, as historical data shows rare 10kt+ events occur roughly every few years without prior warning. Ongoing NEO surveys and Vera C. Rubin Observatory ramp-up provide key catalysts for potential odds shifts through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$144,425 거래량
$144,425 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$144,425 거래량
$144,425 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk monitoring, which detect no credible threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) for the year. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and house-sized objects in March, underscore the effectiveness of global telescope networks like ATLAS and NEOWISE in identifying potential hazards well in advance. The 23.5% tail risk accounts for undetected small bolides capable of airbursts, as historical data shows rare 10kt+ events occur roughly every few years without prior warning. Ongoing NEO surveys and Vera C. Rubin Observatory ramp-up provide key catalysts for potential odds shifts through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
거래량
$144,425종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk monitoring, which detect no credible threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) for the year. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and house-sized objects in March, underscore the effectiveness of global telescope networks like ATLAS and NEOWISE in identifying potential hazards well in advance. The 23.5% tail risk accounts for undetected small bolides capable of airbursts, as historical data shows rare 10kt+ events occur roughly every few years without prior warning. Ongoing NEO surveys and Vera C. Rubin Observatory ramp-up provide key catalysts for potential odds shifts through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$144,425종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's risk monitoring, which detect no credible threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) for the year. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and house-sized objects in March, underscore the effectiveness of global telescope networks like ATLAS and NEOWISE in identifying potential hazards well in advance. The 23.5% tail risk accounts for undetected small bolides capable of airbursts, as historical data shows rare 10kt+ events occur roughly every few years without prior warning. Ongoing NEO surveys and Vera C. Rubin Observatory ramp-up provide key catalysts for potential odds shifts through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문