Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued 2026 Atlantic season forecasts. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), none since despite three Category 5 formations in 2025 (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which spared the U.S. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason outlooks predict below- or near-normal activity for 2026, with 13 named storms and 2-5 majors anticipated amid a likely El Niño emergence (61% NOAA chance by mid-2026), which increases wind shear and suppresses intensification. The National Hurricane Center's June 1 start awaits first model updates, but historical baselines and current ENSO signals justify the strong market tilt toward "No."
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$131,431 거래량
$131,431 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$131,431 거래량
$131,431 거래량
2026.12.31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued 2026 Atlantic season forecasts. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), none since despite three Category 5 formations in 2025 (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which spared the U.S. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason outlooks predict below- or near-normal activity for 2026, with 13 named storms and 2-5 majors anticipated amid a likely El Niño emergence (61% NOAA chance by mid-2026), which increases wind shear and suppresses intensification. The National Hurricane Center's June 1 start awaits first model updates, but historical baselines and current ENSO signals justify the strong market tilt toward "No."
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
거래량
$131,431종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued 2026 Atlantic season forecasts. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), none since despite three Category 5 formations in 2025 (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which spared the U.S. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason outlooks predict below- or near-normal activity for 2026, with 13 named storms and 2-5 majors anticipated amid a likely El Niño emergence (61% NOAA chance by mid-2026), which increases wind shear and suppresses intensification. The National Hurricane Center's June 1 start awaits first model updates, but historical baselines and current ENSO signals justify the strong market tilt toward "No."
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
거래량
$131,431종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued 2026 Atlantic season forecasts. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), none since despite three Category 5 formations in 2025 (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), which spared the U.S. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason outlooks predict below- or near-normal activity for 2026, with 13 named storms and 2-5 majors anticipated amid a likely El Niño emergence (61% NOAA chance by mid-2026), which increases wind shear and suppresses intensification. The National Hurricane Center's June 1 start awaits first model updates, but historical baselines and current ENSO signals justify the strong market tilt toward "No."
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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