Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no new COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, anchored by the recent BA.3.2 ("Cicada") Omicron sublineage's failure to meet WHO or ECDC criteria despite rapid spread to over 30 countries and 33 U.S. states via wastewater and genomic surveillance in March-April 2026. Listed only as a variant under monitoring (VUM) with no evidence of elevated severity, transmissibility, or real-world immune escape—vaccines and hybrid immunity from infections remain effective against hospitalization—current odds capture de-escalated risk amid declining cases. Vigilance persists for spike mutations' lab-shown evasion potential, but no VOC signals have emerged in ongoing tracking.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$233,436 거래량
$233,436 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$233,436 거래량
$233,436 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no new COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, anchored by the recent BA.3.2 ("Cicada") Omicron sublineage's failure to meet WHO or ECDC criteria despite rapid spread to over 30 countries and 33 U.S. states via wastewater and genomic surveillance in March-April 2026. Listed only as a variant under monitoring (VUM) with no evidence of elevated severity, transmissibility, or real-world immune escape—vaccines and hybrid immunity from infections remain effective against hospitalization—current odds capture de-escalated risk amid declining cases. Vigilance persists for spike mutations' lab-shown evasion potential, but no VOC signals have emerged in ongoing tracking.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
마켓 개설일: Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET
거래량
$233,436종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no new COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, anchored by the recent BA.3.2 ("Cicada") Omicron sublineage's failure to meet WHO or ECDC criteria despite rapid spread to over 30 countries and 33 U.S. states via wastewater and genomic surveillance in March-April 2026. Listed only as a variant under monitoring (VUM) with no evidence of elevated severity, transmissibility, or real-world immune escape—vaccines and hybrid immunity from infections remain effective against hospitalization—current odds capture de-escalated risk amid declining cases. Vigilance persists for spike mutations' lab-shown evasion potential, but no VOC signals have emerged in ongoing tracking.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
거래량
$233,436종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no new COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, anchored by the recent BA.3.2 ("Cicada") Omicron sublineage's failure to meet WHO or ECDC criteria despite rapid spread to over 30 countries and 33 U.S. states via wastewater and genomic surveillance in March-April 2026. Listed only as a variant under monitoring (VUM) with no evidence of elevated severity, transmissibility, or real-world immune escape—vaccines and hybrid immunity from infections remain effective against hospitalization—current odds capture de-escalated risk amid declining cases. Vigilance persists for spike mutations' lab-shown evasion potential, but no VOC signals have emerged in ongoing tracking.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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