Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. continental landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2025 season's complete absence of any U.S. hurricane strikes despite three Category 5 storms in the open Atlantic, steered away by upper-level winds. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk predict below-normal activity, with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two majors anticipated, driven by weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification. Historical data shows Cat 4+ U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every three years on average, but current analogs and cooler Atlantic shear favor restraint; NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could shift odds with updated sea surface temperatures and model ensembles.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$324,304 거래량
$324,304 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$324,304 거래량
$324,304 거래량
2026.12.31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. continental landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2025 season's complete absence of any U.S. hurricane strikes despite three Category 5 storms in the open Atlantic, steered away by upper-level winds. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk predict below-normal activity, with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two majors anticipated, driven by weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification. Historical data shows Cat 4+ U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every three years on average, but current analogs and cooler Atlantic shear favor restraint; NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could shift odds with updated sea surface temperatures and model ensembles.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$324,304종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. continental landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2025 season's complete absence of any U.S. hurricane strikes despite three Category 5 storms in the open Atlantic, steered away by upper-level winds. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk predict below-normal activity, with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two majors anticipated, driven by weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification. Historical data shows Cat 4+ U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every three years on average, but current analogs and cooler Atlantic shear favor restraint; NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could shift odds with updated sea surface temperatures and model ensembles.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
거래량
$324,304종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 63% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. continental landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2025 season's complete absence of any U.S. hurricane strikes despite three Category 5 storms in the open Atlantic, steered away by upper-level winds. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk predict below-normal activity, with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two majors anticipated, driven by weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification. Historical data shows Cat 4+ U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every three years on average, but current analogs and cooler Atlantic shear favor restraint; NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could shift odds with updated sea surface temperatures and model ensembles.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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