Traders' strong 93% consensus on "No" for a hurricane landfall in the US by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the Atlantic basin, amid sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well below the 26.5°C threshold required for hurricane formation. High vertical wind shear and cool main development region waters, confirmed by recent NOAA monitoring, further suppress early-season activity, aligning with historical records of zero hurricane (Category 1+) US landfalls before June over 170+ years. Colorado State University's April outlook reinforces below-normal seasonal risks from lingering weak La Niña effects. Realistic challengers include anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse enabling a rare pre-season system, with NHC updates tracked weekly.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,991 거래량
$13,991 거래량
2026.05.31
$13,991 거래량
$13,991 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Traders' strong 93% consensus on "No" for a hurricane landfall in the US by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the Atlantic basin, amid sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well below the 26.5°C threshold required for hurricane formation. High vertical wind shear and cool main development region waters, confirmed by recent NOAA monitoring, further suppress early-season activity, aligning with historical records of zero hurricane (Category 1+) US landfalls before June over 170+ years. Colorado State University's April outlook reinforces below-normal seasonal risks from lingering weak La Niña effects. Realistic challengers include anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse enabling a rare pre-season system, with NHC updates tracked weekly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$13,991종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Traders' strong 93% consensus on "No" for a hurricane landfall in the US by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the Atlantic basin, amid sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well below the 26.5°C threshold required for hurricane formation. High vertical wind shear and cool main development region waters, confirmed by recent NOAA monitoring, further suppress early-season activity, aligning with historical records of zero hurricane (Category 1+) US landfalls before June over 170+ years. Colorado State University's April outlook reinforces below-normal seasonal risks from lingering weak La Niña effects. Realistic challengers include anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse enabling a rare pre-season system, with NHC updates tracked weekly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
거래량
$13,991종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' strong 93% consensus on "No" for a hurricane landfall in the US by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest assessments showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the Atlantic basin, amid sea surface temperatures (SSTs) well below the 26.5°C threshold required for hurricane formation. High vertical wind shear and cool main development region waters, confirmed by recent NOAA monitoring, further suppress early-season activity, aligning with historical records of zero hurricane (Category 1+) US landfalls before June over 170+ years. Colorado State University's April outlook reinforces below-normal seasonal risks from lingering weak La Niña effects. Realistic challengers include anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse enabling a rare pre-season system, with NHC updates tracked weekly.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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