Trader consensus favors "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton meteor strike has occurred through early June. Official USGS seismic catalogs confirm no events reaching the 8.5 threshold, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records show only lower-intensity activity. NOAA and NHC seasonal outlooks indicate a below-average Atlantic hurricane season linked to lingering El Niño conditions that typically suppress major intensification, reducing the near-term odds of a Category 5 landfall. These verified observations and forecast consensus explain the current 73% implied probability on "No," though late-year hurricane activity and any sudden seismic or volcanic developments remain key variables that could shift sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$221,489 거래량
$221,489 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$221,489 거래량
$221,489 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton meteor strike has occurred through early June. Official USGS seismic catalogs confirm no events reaching the 8.5 threshold, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records show only lower-intensity activity. NOAA and NHC seasonal outlooks indicate a below-average Atlantic hurricane season linked to lingering El Niño conditions that typically suppress major intensification, reducing the near-term odds of a Category 5 landfall. These verified observations and forecast consensus explain the current 73% implied probability on "No," though late-year hurricane activity and any sudden seismic or volcanic developments remain key variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$221,489종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton meteor strike has occurred through early June. Official USGS seismic catalogs confirm no events reaching the 8.5 threshold, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records show only lower-intensity activity. NOAA and NHC seasonal outlooks indicate a below-average Atlantic hurricane season linked to lingering El Niño conditions that typically suppress major intensification, reducing the near-term odds of a Category 5 landfall. These verified observations and forecast consensus explain the current 73% implied probability on "No," though late-year hurricane activity and any sudden seismic or volcanic developments remain key variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$221,489종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton meteor strike has occurred through early June. Official USGS seismic catalogs confirm no events reaching the 8.5 threshold, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records show only lower-intensity activity. NOAA and NHC seasonal outlooks indicate a below-average Atlantic hurricane season linked to lingering El Niño conditions that typically suppress major intensification, reducing the near-term odds of a Category 5 landfall. These verified observations and forecast consensus explain the current 73% implied probability on "No," though late-year hurricane activity and any sudden seismic or volcanic developments remain key variables that could shift sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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