Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined by Polymarket as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor impact/airburst per NASA CNEOS—due to the absence of any qualifying events through mid-April despite USGS-recorded M7.4 quakes off Indonesia and Vanuatu. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, curbing Cat 5 intensification and US landfall risks historically below 10% annually. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or major meteors detected; monitor NHC outlooks starting June 1 for seasonal shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$204,212 거래량
$204,212 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$204,212 거래량
$204,212 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined by Polymarket as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor impact/airburst per NASA CNEOS—due to the absence of any qualifying events through mid-April despite USGS-recorded M7.4 quakes off Indonesia and Vanuatu. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, curbing Cat 5 intensification and US landfall risks historically below 10% annually. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or major meteors detected; monitor NHC outlooks starting June 1 for seasonal shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$204,212종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined by Polymarket as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor impact/airburst per NASA CNEOS—due to the absence of any qualifying events through mid-April despite USGS-recorded M7.4 quakes off Indonesia and Vanuatu. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, curbing Cat 5 intensification and US landfall risks historically below 10% annually. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or major meteors detected; monitor NHC outlooks starting June 1 for seasonal shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$204,358종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined by Polymarket as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor impact/airburst per NASA CNEOS—due to the absence of any qualifying events through mid-April despite USGS-recorded M7.4 quakes off Indonesia and Vanuatu. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions, curbing Cat 5 intensification and US landfall risks historically below 10% annually. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or major meteors detected; monitor NHC outlooks starting June 1 for seasonal shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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