NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$104,378 거래량
$104,378 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$104,378 거래량
$104,378 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
거래량
$104,378종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$104,378종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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