**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$110,767 거래량
$110,767 거래량
2026.12.31
$110,767 거래량
$110,767 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
거래량
$110,767종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$110,767종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton airburst or impact remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring.** Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball reports (including events tracked by the American Meteor Society) have stayed well below the 1 MT threshold and align with the normal flux of meter-scale bodies. Objects capable of 1 MT release are typically tens of meters across; their average terrestrial impact interval spans several decades, consistent with current observational completeness for larger potential impactors. Continuous optical and radar surveys through year-end could still reveal a small, previously undetected fragment, though statistical models place that combined risk well below the market-implied threshold.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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