As of April 15, 2026, SpaceX has achieved 56 successful Falcon 9 orbital launches—surpassing 1,000 Starlink satellites deployed—averaging over one flight every two days and projecting toward 190+ for the year if sustained. Yet trader sentiment splits nearly evenly between 140-159 (35%) and 160-179 (34.5%), reflecting uncertainty in maintaining this cadence amid launch site constraints at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase, plus booster refurbishment cycles exceeding 30 flights per vehicle. No Starship orbital flights yet, with Flight 12 delayed to early May per recent NASA and FAA updates, tempering higher bins; key differentiators include Starship ramp-up potential versus demand-limited Falcon 9 throttling, with model consensus hinging on Q3 pad expansions and zero-anomaly reliability. Watch upcoming Starship tests and manifest releases for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년에 출시되는 SpaceX는 몇 개입니까?
2026년에 출시되는 SpaceX는 몇 개입니까?
140~159 35.1%
160-179 35%
180-199 18.3%
120~139 15.5%
$281,533 거래량
$281,533 거래량
100 미만
3%
100~119
<1%
120~139
12%
140~159
35%
160-179
35%
180-199
13%
200회 이상
15%
140~159 35.1%
160-179 35%
180-199 18.3%
120~139 15.5%
$281,533 거래량
$281,533 거래량
100 미만
3%
100~119
<1%
120~139
12%
140~159
35%
160-179
35%
180-199
13%
200회 이상
15%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
마켓 개설일: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of April 15, 2026, SpaceX has achieved 56 successful Falcon 9 orbital launches—surpassing 1,000 Starlink satellites deployed—averaging over one flight every two days and projecting toward 190+ for the year if sustained. Yet trader sentiment splits nearly evenly between 140-159 (35%) and 160-179 (34.5%), reflecting uncertainty in maintaining this cadence amid launch site constraints at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase, plus booster refurbishment cycles exceeding 30 flights per vehicle. No Starship orbital flights yet, with Flight 12 delayed to early May per recent NASA and FAA updates, tempering higher bins; key differentiators include Starship ramp-up potential versus demand-limited Falcon 9 throttling, with model consensus hinging on Q3 pad expansions and zero-anomaly reliability. Watch upcoming Starship tests and manifest releases for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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