Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to SpaceX's IPO valuation landing in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, reflecting recent reports of a confidential S-1 filing targeting up to $2 trillion while aiming to raise $75 billion—the largest in history. This surge from the $800 billion December 2025 tender offer stems from Starlink's explosive revenue trajectory, now comprising over 95% of total income via commercial satellite broadband expansion and global direct-to-cell spectrum wins, alongside Starship reusability milestones bolstering orbital logistics dominance. Lower probabilities for adjacent bins highlight pricing uncertainty ahead of investor site visits and a potential mid-2026 listing, with private Forge valuations already exceeding $1 trillion underscoring skin-in-the-game optimism.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.75-2.00조 51%
2.00-2.25조 18%
1.50-1.75조 10.9%
2.25~2.50조 4.8%
$126,807 거래량
$126,807 거래량
1.25조 미만
4%
1.25-1.50조
17%
1.50-1.75조
9%
1.75-2.00조
54%
2.00-2.25조
13%
2.25~2.50조
5%
2.50조 달러 이상
3%
1.75-2.00조 51%
2.00-2.25조 18%
1.50-1.75조 10.9%
2.25~2.50조 4.8%
$126,807 거래량
$126,807 거래량
1.25조 미만
$58,779 거래량
4%
1.25-1.50조
$15,850 거래량
17%
1.50-1.75조
$8,028 거래량
9%
1.75-2.00조
$10,959 거래량
54%
2.00-2.25조
$13,142 거래량
13%
2.25~2.50조
$9,747 거래량
5%
2.50조 달러 이상
$10,301 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to SpaceX's IPO valuation landing in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, reflecting recent reports of a confidential S-1 filing targeting up to $2 trillion while aiming to raise $75 billion—the largest in history. This surge from the $800 billion December 2025 tender offer stems from Starlink's explosive revenue trajectory, now comprising over 95% of total income via commercial satellite broadband expansion and global direct-to-cell spectrum wins, alongside Starship reusability milestones bolstering orbital logistics dominance. Lower probabilities for adjacent bins highlight pricing uncertainty ahead of investor site visits and a potential mid-2026 listing, with private Forge valuations already exceeding $1 trillion underscoring skin-in-the-game optimism.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
거래량
$126,807마켓 개설일
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to SpaceX's IPO valuation landing in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, reflecting recent reports of a confidential S-1 filing targeting up to $2 trillion while aiming to raise $75 billion—the largest in history. This surge from the $800 billion December 2025 tender offer stems from Starlink's explosive revenue trajectory, now comprising over 95% of total income via commercial satellite broadband expansion and global direct-to-cell spectrum wins, alongside Starship reusability milestones bolstering orbital logistics dominance. Lower probabilities for adjacent bins highlight pricing uncertainty ahead of investor site visits and a potential mid-2026 listing, with private Forge valuations already exceeding $1 trillion underscoring skin-in-the-game optimism.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$126,807마켓 개설일
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to SpaceX's IPO valuation landing in the $1.75-2.00 trillion range, reflecting recent reports of a confidential S-1 filing targeting up to $2 trillion while aiming to raise $75 billion—the largest in history. This surge from the $800 billion December 2025 tender offer stems from Starlink's explosive revenue trajectory, now comprising over 95% of total income via commercial satellite broadband expansion and global direct-to-cell spectrum wins, alongside Starship reusability milestones bolstering orbital logistics dominance. Lower probabilities for adjacent bins highlight pricing uncertainty ahead of investor site visits and a potential mid-2026 listing, with private Forge valuations already exceeding $1 trillion underscoring skin-in-the-game optimism.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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