Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.15–1.20°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline so far this month, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C (44%) and 1.20–1.24°C (28%) outcomes as the month progresses. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48°C above pre-industrial—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures—but reflects a slight moderation under current ENSO-neutral conditions, favored at 80% through June per NOAA. High SST persistence and potential westerly wind shifts hint at El Niño emergence later, adding upside risk; full-month Copernicus bulletin expected late April will refine resolution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 4월 온도 상승 (ºC)
2026년 4월 온도 상승 (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 44%
1.20–1.24ºC 27%
1.10–1.14ºC 13%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
$120,794 거래량
$120,794 거래량
2026.05.10
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
13%
1.15–1.19ºC
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
27%
1.25–1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
6%
1.15–1.19ºC 44%
1.20–1.24ºC 27%
1.10–1.14ºC 13%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
$120,794 거래량
$120,794 거래량
2026.05.10
<1.10ºC
$28,303 거래량
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$23,018 거래량
13%
1.15–1.19ºC
$13,890 거래량
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
$15,815 거래량
27%
1.25–1.29ºC
$27,729 거래량
9%
>1.29ºC
$12,065 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.15–1.20°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline so far this month, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C (44%) and 1.20–1.24°C (28%) outcomes as the month progresses. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48°C above pre-industrial—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures—but reflects a slight moderation under current ENSO-neutral conditions, favored at 80% through June per NOAA. High SST persistence and potential westerly wind shifts hint at El Niño emergence later, adding upside risk; full-month Copernicus bulletin expected late April will refine resolution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
거래량
$120,794종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.15–1.20°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline so far this month, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C (44%) and 1.20–1.24°C (28%) outcomes as the month progresses. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48°C above pre-industrial—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures—but reflects a slight moderation under current ENSO-neutral conditions, favored at 80% through June per NOAA. High SST persistence and potential westerly wind shifts hint at El Niño emergence later, adding upside risk; full-month Copernicus bulletin expected late April will refine resolution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
거래량
$120,794종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.15–1.20°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline so far this month, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C (44%) and 1.20–1.24°C (28%) outcomes as the month progresses. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48°C above pre-industrial—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures—but reflects a slight moderation under current ENSO-neutral conditions, favored at 80% through June per NOAA. High SST persistence and potential westerly wind shifts hint at El Niño emergence later, adding upside risk; full-month Copernicus bulletin expected late April will refine resolution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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